Hot Like A Firework For The Fourth With A Few Storms Possible

Happy Independence Day! It's going to be as hot as a firework Sunday in the Twin Cities with morning lows in the low 70s and highs climbing to the mid-90s. Mostly sunny skies will reign throughout most of the day, but by the evening hours we can't rule out a few stronger thunderstorms roaming through the area.

As we look at the Independence Day record books, the warmest was back in 2012 when it hit 101F for a high and the low was only 81F. The wettest was back in 1900 when 2.27" of rain fell. Last year we saw a low of 71F, a high of 90F, and no precipitation. Looking at the data, we have only observed a high of 95F+ on the Fourth of July six times, and a high of 90F+ 23 times. The Minnesota State Climatology Office has a bunch of Fourth of July stats not only for the Twin Cities but the state as well.

As we look statewide for the 4th, highs will be in the 80s and 90s - maybe even approach 100F out in southwestern Minnesota - 10-15F degrees above average. While we will track mainly sunny skies, some storms can't be ruled out in the Arrowhead in the morning and then stretching from southwestern Minnesota to the Arrowhead later in the afternoon and evening hours.

Here's a look at the timing of those storms as a cold front slowly tries to make it through the state Sunday into Monday. While a few showers or storms may be around in the Arrowhead to begin the day, a fresh round of storms will pop during the afternoon and evening hours from north-central/northeast Minnesota to southwestern portions of the state. These storms look to start to die off once we lose daylight. (Loop: 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday)

With the expected scattered nature of the storms that pop on Independence Day, we could have the situation once again where a location 10 miles from you gets heavy rain but you get none. The best odds at "heavier" rain (maybe over a quarter inch) will be across portions of the Arrowhead on Sunday where some areas could get both rounds of rain.

A few of the storms could also be on the strong side, with a Marginal Risk of severe weather (threat level 1 of 5) in place. Damaging winds and large hail would be the threats from any of the stronger storms.

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Here's a look at that more widespread rainfall event for Tuesday, where some locations of central and southern Minnesota could see upward of half an inch or more of rain. If you live north of a Duluth to Grand Forks line, however, rain chances could be null and void.

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Serious Sunscreen Weather Next 2 Days
By Paul Douglas

It's not the heat, it's the humility. Never forget that. A sweaty 4th of July holiday weekend is here, and most of us will experience a hazy, stuffy (dry) sky into Monday. Any thundery blobs on Doppler will probably rumble over far northern Minnesota, with dry weather for fireworks later this evening.

And the Minnesota State Climatology Office reports that snow has never been reported on July 4th in the metro, or anywhere, statewide. That's good to know.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Hot sunshine. Wake up 72. High 95. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 10-25 mph.

MONDAY: Full frontal summer. Hot sunshine. Wake up 74. High 95. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and comfortable. Wake up 60. High 75. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.

THURSDAY: Blue sky, still pleasant. Wake up 58. High 81. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

FRIDAY: Showers and T-storms in the area. Wake up 67. High 87. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind W 15-30 mph.

SATURDAY: Windy and cooler. Few showers. Wake up 60. High 76. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

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*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 30 minutes and 4 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 56 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours And 30 Minutes Of Daylight? July 5th (15 hours, 29 minutes, and 3 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 6 AM?: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 7th (8:30 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
July 4th

1999: Severe winds knock down millions of trees in the BWCA, injuring 19 people.

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For Independence Day across the nation, a stalled-out boundary near the Gulf Coast stretching back into the Southern Plains will help spark off some showers and storms with ample moisture in place. A boundary in the Northern U.S. could help spark off more showers and storms as well from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. A trough will bring the chance of rain to New England. I do think we should see mainly dry weather for the big evening fireworks displays in New York City and Washington D.C. Eyes will be on Elsa, impacting portions of the Caribbean on Sunday, as will pose a threat to the Southeast (particularly Florida) during the work week.

The heaviest rain through Monday will be near the Gulf Coast, where some isolated 3" amounts will be possible.

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Elsa weakened to a Tropical Storm on Saturday due to its quick movement making the storm a little bit disorganized. Elsa will continue to move northwestward over the next couple of days, passing over Cuba Sunday into Monday before impacting Florida and the Southeast later Monday into the middle of the week. This system could bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, and storm surge to Florida and portions of the Southeast during the work week.

Over 100 fire scientists urge the US West: Skip the fireworks this record-dry 4th of July

More from The Conversation: "For decades, one of the most striking and predictable patterns of human behavior in the western U.S. has been people accidentally starting fires on the Fourth of July. From 1992 to 2015, more than 7,000 wildfires started in the U.S. on July 4 – the most wildfires ignited on any day during the year. And most of these are near homes. With this year's tinder-dry grasslands and parched forests, sparks from anything – a cigarette, a campfire, a power line, even a mower blade hitting a rock – could ignite a wildfire, with deadly consequences."

Dry conditions are hurting Minnesota's cattle farms first

More from the Star Tribune: "Minnesota's yellowing grass and drier-than-normal weather may soon force cattle farmers to make tough decisions about how to feed their herds. While the state's big row crops — soybeans, corn and sugar beets — need significant rainfall soon to stop the deterioration, there is still time to see conditions improve before harvest in the fall. Not so for pasture-dependent cattle in many parts of the state. "While we are in a wait-and-see period for row crops, we are past the wait-and-see period for anybody who's worried about hay and pasture," said Joe Armstrong, a cattle veterinarian extension educator with the University of Minnesota. "Decisions have to be made before you run out of grass.""

Five ways to ensure flood-risk research helps the most vulnerable

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser