A Hot Independence Day
Happy Independence Day! It's going to be as hot as a firework Sunday in the Twin Cities with morning lows in the low 70s and highs climbing to the mid-90s. Mostly sunny skies will reign throughout most of the day, but by the evening hours we can't rule out a few stronger thunderstorms roaming through the area.
As we look at the Independence Day record books, the warmest was back in 2012 when it hit 101F for a high and the low was only 81F. The wettest was back in 1900 when 2.27" of rain fell. Last year we saw a low of 71F, a high of 90F, and no precipitation. Looking at the data, we have only observed a high of 95F+ on the Fourth of July six times, and a high of 90F+ 23 times. The Minnesota State Climatology Office has a bunch of Fourth of July stats not only for the Twin Cities but the state as well.
As we look statewide for the 4th, highs will be in the 80s and 90s - maybe even approach 100F out in southwestern Minnesota - 10-15F degrees above average. While we will track mainly sunny skies, some storms can't be ruled out in the Arrowhead in the morning and then stretching from southwestern Minnesota to the Arrowhead later in the afternoon and evening hours.
Here's a look at the timing of those storms as a cold front slowly tries to make it through the state Sunday into Monday. While a few showers or storms may be around in the Arrowhead to begin the day, a fresh round of storms will pop during the afternoon and evening hours from north-central/northeast Minnesota to southwestern portions of the state. These storms look to start to die off once we lose daylight. (Loop: 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday)
With the expected scattered nature of the storms that pop on Independence Day, we could have the situation once again where a location 10 miles from you gets heavy rain but you get none. The best odds at "heavier" rain (maybe over a quarter inch) will be across portions of the Arrowhead on Sunday where some areas could get both rounds of rain.
A few of the storms could also be on the strong side, with a Marginal Risk of severe weather (threat level 1 of 5) in place. Damaging winds and large hail would be the threats from any of the stronger storms.
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Extended Temperature Outlook
We stay hot into Monday for the observed federal holiday with highs once again in the mid-90s under mainly sunny skies. As a system looks from move out of Wyoming into the upper Midwest Tuesday, however, we will start to cool down as well as have a good chance at some rain across central and southern Minnesota. Slightly below average (but very nice) weather continues Wednesday and Thursday with fairly dry conditions. Our next chance of rain after Tuesday moves in Thursday Night into Friday.
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A More Widespread Rain Tuesday?
Here's a look at that more widespread rainfall event for Tuesday, where some locations of central and southern Minnesota could see upward of half an inch or more of rain. If you live north of a Duluth to Grand Forks line, however, rain chances could be null and void.
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Serious Sunscreen Weather Next 2 Days
By Paul Douglas
It's not the heat, it's the humility. Never forget that. A sweaty 4th of July holiday weekend is here, and most of us will experience a hazy, stuffy (dry) sky into Monday. Any thundery blobs on Doppler will probably rumble over far northern Minnesota, with dry weather for fireworks later this evening.
There's about a 105 percent probability of hot weather: mid-90s are likely. Praedictix meteorologist DJ Kayser informs me that MSP has experienced 95F heat only 6 times since 1872. Today could easily be number seven. Hot sunshine lingers Monday, another great day to go jump in a lake. Showers and thunderstorms become more prevalent and widespread Tuesday. You know it's a hot summer when 80s constitute a "cool front" next week. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Elsa should weaken as it tracks over Cuba, possibly impacting Florida as a tropical storm by Tuesday.
And the Minnesota State Climatology Office reports that snow has never been reported on July 4th in the metro, or anywhere, statewide. That's good to know.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
SUNDAY: Hot sunshine. Wake up 72. High 95. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 10-25 mph.
MONDAY: Full frontal summer. Hot sunshine. Wake up 74. High 95. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
TUESDAY: Cooler with showers and T-storms. Wake up 72. High 82. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and comfortable. Wake up 60. High 75. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.
THURSDAY: Blue sky, still pleasant. Wake up 58. High 81. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
FRIDAY: Showers and T-storms in the area. Wake up 67. High 87. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind W 15-30 mph.
SATURDAY: Windy and cooler. Few showers. Wake up 60. High 76. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.
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Minneapolis Sun Data
July 4th
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 30 minutes and 4 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 56 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours And 30 Minutes Of Daylight? July 5th (15 hours, 29 minutes, and 3 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 6 AM?: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 7th (8:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
July 4th
1999: Severe winds knock down millions of trees in the BWCA, injuring 19 people.
1962: An extremely heavy downpour falls at Jackson, dumping 7.5 inches of rain in two hours.
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National Weather Forecast
For Independence Day across the nation, a stalled-out boundary near the Gulf Coast stretching back into the Southern Plains will help spark off some showers and storms with ample moisture in place. A boundary in the Northern U.S. could help spark off more showers and storms as well from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. A trough will bring the chance of rain to New England. I do think we should see mainly dry weather for the big evening fireworks displays in New York City and Washington D.C. Eyes will be on Elsa, impacting portions of the Caribbean on Sunday, as will pose a threat to the Southeast (particularly Florida) during the work week.
The heaviest rain through Monday will be near the Gulf Coast, where some isolated 3" amounts will be possible.
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Latest On Elsa
Elsa weakened to a Tropical Storm on Saturday due to its quick movement making the storm a little bit disorganized. Elsa will continue to move northwestward over the next couple of days, passing over Cuba Sunday into Monday before impacting Florida and the Southeast later Monday into the middle of the week. This system could bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, and storm surge to Florida and portions of the Southeast during the work week.
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Over 100 fire scientists urge the US West: Skip the fireworks this record-dry 4th of July
More from The Conversation: "For decades, one of the most striking and predictable patterns of human behavior in the western U.S. has been people accidentally starting fires on the Fourth of July. From 1992 to 2015, more than 7,000 wildfires started in the U.S. on July 4 – the most wildfires ignited on any day during the year. And most of these are near homes. With this year's tinder-dry grasslands and parched forests, sparks from anything – a cigarette, a campfire, a power line, even a mower blade hitting a rock – could ignite a wildfire, with deadly consequences."
Dry conditions are hurting Minnesota's cattle farms first
More from the Star Tribune: "Minnesota's yellowing grass and drier-than-normal weather may soon force cattle farmers to make tough decisions about how to feed their herds. While the state's big row crops — soybeans, corn and sugar beets — need significant rainfall soon to stop the deterioration, there is still time to see conditions improve before harvest in the fall. Not so for pasture-dependent cattle in many parts of the state. "While we are in a wait-and-see period for row crops, we are past the wait-and-see period for anybody who's worried about hay and pasture," said Joe Armstrong, a cattle veterinarian extension educator with the University of Minnesota. "Decisions have to be made before you run out of grass.""
Five ways to ensure flood-risk research helps the most vulnerable
More from Nature: "The year 2020 saw further devastating floods, caused by storms such as Cyclone Amphan in South Asia and a record-breaking hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean. It is now clear that the changing climate is making coastal flooding more frequent, downpours heavier and storms wetter. Less appreciated is that the impacts of increased flooding are distributed unequally and unfairly. The greatest burdens fall on the most vulnerable.Global damage from floods and storms has been trending steadily upwards, from US$94 billion in the 1980s to more than $1 trillion in the 2010s, according to the emergency-events database EM-DAT (www.emdat.be). This increased economic burden is driven in part by changing climate patterns, alongside increased settlement and development in areas of higher hazard."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
