Gov. Tim Walz is out of the governor’s race. Is that good news for Republicans?

Republicans wanted Gov. Tim Walz gone, but an early exit from his re-election campaign presents its own challenges.

State and national Republicans — including President Donald Trump — hammered Walz over a series of fraud scandals in Minnesota’s welfare programs, which they correctly identified would be a serious political liability for the two-term governor.

Now, the “whole strategy has to change” for a fraud-focused campaign that may not have the same salience, said Marty Seifert, a former House GOP leader who ran for governor twice.

“The Republican dog caught the moving tire on the truck that they’ve been chasing,” Seifert said on Monday. “Now, everything has to be rebooted.”

Seifert said things will be “certainly more uphill” for the GOP than before Walz’s announcement. Plus, U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar would be “extremely formidable” if she launches a campaign for governor to replace Walz, said former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty. After seeing an opening to end a losing streak, the GOP may find those factors could make it harder for the GOP to win its first gubernatorial election since 2006.

“If Senator Klobuchar enters the race, many of the Republican candidates will be out of the race before the fishing opener or sooner,” Pawlenty said.

Still, many Republicans are bullish that Walz’s departure is proof of a wider DFL problem and that voters will recognize the issue doesn’t end with Walz.

Republicans have not picked their nominee for governor yet, but the slate of candidates and current GOP elected officials have been united in their criticism of fraud under Walz’s watch.

Federal prosecutors have documented hundreds of millions of dollars in fraud in state programs, including housing and meals programs and state autism services. Those prosecutors predict the total theft could be in the billions after additional investigation.

Those predictions have been amplified by Assistant U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson and his sharp warning of more to come, Trump’s posting on social media and threat to freeze child care payments, reporting by news outlets and videos made by right-wing influencers like Nick Shirley.

The drumbeat came to a head on Monday when Walz said that he was hard at work fixing the problem of fraud but felt he couldn’t take time to campaign while also “defending the people of Minnesota against the criminals who prey on our generosity and the cynics who prey on our differences.”

Walz argued the GOP was involved in “political gamesmanship” to “score a few cheap points.”

“Fraud will remain a very potent and important issue because Minnesotans are understandably mad about it and the investigations, reviews, audits and criminal charges are just getting started,” Pawlenty said.

That’s exactly the case the GOP started making Monday.

House Speaker Lisa Demuth, a Republican from Cold Spring running for governor, told the Minnesota Star Tribune that any Democrat who runs for governor will have to contend with headwinds Walz faced.

“The Democrats have never separated themselves from Walz whatsoever,” she said. “So really, whichever Democrat ends up running for governor is going to be running for Gov. Walz’s third term.”

Some of the candidates also have other issues they think will convince voters to pick the GOP. Attorney Chris Madel, another Republican candidate for governor, said on social media that “‘Tim Walz sucks’ is not a strategy” and that he would focus on supporting police and “restoring sanity to the state I love.”

Klobuchar has consistently won statewide elections with bigger margins than other Democrats. She blew out GOP challenger Royce White in her latest re-election campaign for U.S. Senate. Klobuchar also had no role in administering the state programs with identified fraud.

Seifert said a Walz campaign would have been “really intense” and faced heavy scrutiny, but now national Republicans will have to reassess the race to decide if they have a better or worse chance of winning.

Even without Walz on the ticket, national GOP groups may think it’s worth the spending because Minnesota is not a deep blue state and the Harris-Walz ticket didn’t win with an enormous margin, Seifert said.

“I think they may put more time and money into it actually,” Seifert said of national GOP groups. “It might have a reverse effect, that like ‘we might have a real shot here and we’re going to put more resources into this. We’re not going to let this fade away.’”

Demuth said Klobuchar’s possible entry doesn’t change her campaign calculus, and GOP voters are still enthusiastic about the upcoming election.

He said Democrats “went off the rails” with total control of state government in 2023 and 2024, passing a flurry of progressive policies and spending a historically large $17.5 billion surplus.

Fear of a repeat “will continue to energize and fuel Republican involvement,” Garofalo said.

Still, at least one state lawmaker wished Walz had stayed in the race.

It would give voters “an opportunity to feel like they are holding him to account” for the state’s problem with fraud, said Rep. Cal Warwas, an Iron Range Republican.

“I think it’s going to be easy for the public to shift away from thinking about” fraud, Warwas said, imagining the problem disappears with Walz. “Which is nowhere near true.”