Brehm: Tim Pawlenty should reconsider and run for the U.S. Senate in 2026

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A few years ago, I decided to take up tennis. I liked the idea of being able to get in a workout and competitive match simultaneously in about an hour. But in addition to an erratic serve, one of the challenges of my newfound hobby has been finding someone to play with regularly. It can be hard to sync up schedules.

But the past few summers, my most reliable tennis partner has been Tim Pawlenty, who has been a personal friend since we traveled to the Republican National Convention in Philadelphia together in 2000.

Despite our 20-year age difference, our tennis games are competitive. He has the agility of a man far younger than his 64 years.

That was on full display one humid day in July when we were scheduled to play in temperatures expected to surpass 90. “It’s pretty hot today, are you sure you want to do this?” I texted him that morning. “I’m ok with the heat,” he responded coolly. “See you there at 2.” It was scorching that afternoon, but he had no problem hustling around the court and beating me handily.

As much as I enjoy the former governor as a tennis buddy, my hope is that he will take next summer off from the courts and train his youthful energy and discipline instead on a return to politics and running for the U.S. Senate to succeed the retiring Democrat Tina Smith. I know he has decided to pass, but this column stands to push him to reconsider. He can win and would represent Minnesota in Washington with dignity, class and common sense. And boy, do we need more of that on both sides of the aisle.

I’ll be the first to admit my party can be its own worst political enemy and has selected many unpalatable nominees over the years who have been easy for Minnesota voters to reject. But hubris is always dangerous — especially in politics — and this Senate seat should be up for grabs in 2026. At least that’s what the internal polling for Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who wants the seat herself, shows.

A memo from the Flanagan for Senate campaign, which was posted online by Fluence Media, reveals a Public Policy Polling survey of 1,015 likely Minnesota voters from September in which they were asked to pick between either Flanagan or the other prominent Democrat running for the seat, U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, and a generic “Republican candidate.”

The results showed Flanagan beating the Republican straw man by only 2 points. Meanwhile, Craig didn’t do much better, hypothetically besting a GOP opponent by just 4 points. Given the group that conducted the poll is left-leaning, the real data probably shows this thing to be a dead heat. But wait, there’s more.

Strengthening the argument that this seat can be a Republican pickup is that Flanagan is likely to be the Democratic nominee. Her internal polling in February, according to the same memo, showed she would beat Craig in a primary by a landslide of 30 points. That’s not surprising. Democrats continue to lurch to the left after President Donald Trump’s election; that lurch has been on full display this year here in Minneapolis and New York as democratic socialists continue to seize more influence over the party’s direction and candidates.

While Minnesota’s urban core may be a hotspot of progressiveness, the state is far more moderate. (President Trump was competitive here in 2024, even with our governor on the Democratic ticket.) When voters get to know Flanagan better as this race plays out, I think they’ll take a hard pass on having her represent us in Congress’s upper chamber.

By all accounts, Flanagan is a nice person (I once had a very pleasant exchange with her on an airplane flying back to Minnesota from Washington). But at a time when this state and country are shifting ideologically toward the center-right, she’s just way too radical for most Minnesota voters’ temperate political tastes. If she’s the Democratic choice in 2026, and I think she will be, a plurality of voters here will be looking for an alternative.

So, unless Minnesota Republicans opt for a political kamikaze campaign and run the patently unfit for office Royce White again, the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate should be competitive next year. And having Tim Pawlenty in that spot would give us our best shot at success.

For starters, he knows the state. And the state knows him. Both like each other. In 2006, he was a GOP outlier and was able to win the governor’s office, during a horrible national election cycle for Republicans, because voters here liked his pragmatic and competent governing style and trusted him as someone of integrity.

While he fights as hard as anyone I know for his conservative corner, Pawlenty also knows how to disagree agreeably. At a time when we all want to lower the political temperature, having kindhearted candidates like him back in the political arena would adjust the thermostat.

And Pawlenty, who comes from humble beginnings in South St. Paul, is perhaps an even better fit to be a GOP standard-bearer today than he was 20 years ago given the party’s growing popularity with working-class voters.

The last few years have been hard to be a conservative in Minnesota. But some of that is self-inflicted due to our fielding unappealing statewide candidates in the general election. It’s ridiculous that a purple state such as ours is represented at the top almost exclusively by hard-left blazing blue politicians.