A year ago, 9.4 inches of snow fell on MSP during the month of November. We had already seen our first subzero low; Minnesota's lakes were icing up. Snow lovers were encouraged. This year, some lawns are still pale-green, there's open water on most lakes and Thursday's 1.3 inch snowfall qualified as a "storm." Average November snowfall in the Twin Cities is 9.3 inches. Not this year.

Cool sun spills over into Sunday as weather cooperates with holiday shopping — getting home shouldn't be a problem. Old Man Winter will be well-behaved until Monday night and Tuesday, when a spoke of southern moisture rotates north, the lowest mile of the atmosphere marginally cold enough for a few inches of snow. It's too early to predict specific amounts, but Tuesday's commute may be problematic.

There just isn't any frigid air across North America, and long-range models show a mild bias into mid-December as steering winds blow from the Pacific. Could the pattern shift in January? Possible, but El Niño is forecast to linger into 2016. The maps remind me of 2011-2012, when 22.3 inches fell at MSP.