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Texts started coming in early Tuesday morning — from friends, neighbors and parents of basketball teammates. High schools across the southern Twin Cities metro were closing because of a school shooting threat. Apple Valley. Eagan. Eastview. Rosemount. In District 196, buses were already on the road when they turned around and brought children back home.
More than a dozen schools canceled classes that day. All 13 schools in the Burnsville–Eagan–Savage district shut down. Burnsville High School and Burnsville Alternative High School dismissed students by midmorning. Parents scrambled for child care. Students sat at home refreshing their phones, unsure what was happening or when they would feel safe returning to school.
School shooting threats are not rare. What’s rare is how visible this one became. Few states require districts to report the threats they receive publicly, so the true scope of the problem is largely hidden. But where data exist, the scale is staggering. In Texas, school officials reported more than 67,000 threats in 2022 — an average of four threats per school. In recent years, districts nationwide have faced waves of false, automated “swatting” threats, including the viral TikTok warning a few years ago calling for a so-called “National Shoot Up Your School Day.”
In a peer-reviewed study, we analyzed 1,000 publicly documented school shooting threats. Most turned out to be jokes, hoaxes or attempts to disrupt school. The problem is that perpetrators who go on to commit school shootings often make threats beforehand. That means every threat has to be treated as real until proven otherwise.
Threats are considered most credible when they include specific targets, specific dates and indications of access to firearms. School leaders are left weighing student learning against student safety, the risk of panic against the risk of catastrophe. We have spoken with principals who describe lying awake at night, replaying their decisions and praying they made the correct choice.
By that standard, what happened Tuesday in the southern metro was the system working. Students saw something concerning on social media and reported it. Adults took it seriously. School leaders and law enforcement coordinated. Schools closed quickly. The source of the threat was identified.