NFL Week 5 preview and picks: Please stop celebrating too early

On the NFL insider Mark Craig takes a look around the NFL and finds a troublesome taunt, areas of concern in Buffalo and a historically bad performance in Dallas.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
October 2, 2025 at 9:50PM
Colts receiver Adonai Mitchell (10) fumbles the ball before crossing the goal line against the Rams on Sunday, earning the "Rant of the week." (Eric Thayer/The Associated Press)

Welcome to a weekly look at the NFL’s next round of games. A peek that will be less quarterback-crazy and more about offensive lines, defense, running games, maybe even the occasional punter, for gosh sakes, and all things that make this the greatest team game ever invented, not the star-driven individualized sport that way too many of us try to make it out to be. An effort will be made to keep the tone somewhere between “going old-school and ”Get off my lawn!“

Rant of the week

Daniel Jones and the Colts host the Raiders with a chance for Indianapolis to go 4-1 for the first time since 2013, Andrew Luck’s second season. The Colts would be going for their first 5-0 start since Peyton Manning led them to the Super Bowl in 2009 if not for second-year receiver Adonai Mitchell’s showboating gaffe. A boneheaded mistake representative of too many made by some selfish players in today’s game. Mitchell made a great catch and an even greater 75-yard run before he tried to celebrate by taunting the defense as he was about to cross the goal line with the Colts trailing the Rams 13-10 early in the third quarter last week. He fumbled through the end zone for a touchback in a 27-20 loss. Coach Steve Steichen said after the game: “That starts with me. I have to do a better job emphasizing it more.” Are you kidding me?!

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Paul Brown of the week

As one of only two undefeated coaches heading into Week 5, Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni has a chance to match something done by only the most innovative and possibly best coach in league history. Bill Belichick? No, Cleveland’s Paul Brown. If Sirianni beats Denver (2-2) at home, he will match Brown by reaching 5-0 for the third time in his first five seasons. Beware the Broncos, however. One of the best teams in the trenches, Denver leads the NFL in sacks (15) and is tied with Jacksonville for fewest sacks allowed (three).

Perfect Bills not so perfect

Add one of the stranger stats of the 2025 season to the long list of reasons Josh Allen was and still is the league MVP. The Bills are going for 5-0 when they host New England (2-2), yet they are 31st in run defense. They are giving up 164.3 yards rushing per game. Against the Saints last week, they gave up 165 after-contact yards, the most by any team since at least 2018, according to NextGen Stats. The seven other teams in the bottom eight in run defense are a combined 7-21. The Bills lead the league in rushing, yet their impressive average (163.5) is still 0.8 less than what they’re giving up on the ground.

Historic embarrassment in Dallas

Sorry to rain on last week’s triumphant 40-40 comeback tie with Green Bay in Big D, but this might be my favorite stat for all the Cowboys haters out there: Until Sunday night, home teams that scored 40 points with no turnovers were 300-0 since 1967, the Super Bowl era. Dallas (1-2-1) plays at the Jets, one of three winless teams, two of which are at home — the Giants (1-3) are at New Orleans (0-4) — and have a decent shot at their first victory. The Jets are the last team without a takeaway this season, but the Cowboys proved last week that their defense is awful even when it’s not battling short fields. Dallas ranks last in yards allowed (420.5), passing yards allowed (297.3) and third-down percentage (58.2). It’s also 31st in points allowed (33.0). In other words, J-E-T-S!

Stat of the week

59.3 Saquon Barkley, apparently healthy this season, is averaging fewer than 60 yards rushing per game — ranking 20th in rushing with 237 yards — heading into Week 5. An MVP candidate a year ago, he averaged 125.3 yards per game en route to a 2,005-yard season. His pace this year: 1,008 yards.

Quote of the week

quote

Nope. No, we don’t.

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, when asked if he and Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold ever reminisce about their “good old days” in Carolina in 2022.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws during the second half of an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin) (Ross D. Franklin/The Associated Press)

Game of the week

Buccaneers (3-1) at Seahawks (3-1) Two games feature two teams with winning records. No, Carolina isn’t one of them. But Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold did share part of an awful fall together with the Panthers three years ago. Mayfield was 1-5 with the worst completion percentage of his career (57.8) before requesting his release. Darnold went 4-2 with his second-worst completion percentage (58.6). Today, Mayfield has an 8-to-1 TD-to-INT differential and has thrown more touchdown passes (77) than any other NFL quarterback since joining the Bucs in 2023. Darnold’s career resurrection that began last year continues. His career-high completion percentage has bumped up from 66.2 to 70.0 this season.

Did you know?

The NFL’s first four weeks featured 18 games in which the game-winning score came in the final three minutes of regulation or overtime. That’s the most in 42 years and ties 1983 for the most ever after four weeks.

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Vikings thought of the week

Defensive coordinator Brian Flores is as good as they get on third-and-long. Like anyone else when his squad can’t stop the run, Flores becomes just another helpless brainiac standing on the sidelines on third-and-short. The Vikings have allowed per-carry averages of 4.6 in a comeback win at Chicago, 5.6 in a home beatdown loss to Atlanta, 2.5 in a home blowout win over Cincinnati and 4.5 to a weak Steelers attack in last week’s loss in Dublin. The Browns enter Sunday’s game against the Vikings in London with per-carry averages allowed of 2.0, 5.2, 5.1 and 2.9 this season.

NFC North thought of the week

Assuming the Bears prepared for everything they’ll face in Washington this week (Don’t forget the Hail Mary, boys! See: Week 8 in 2024!), Chicago could start 3-2 for the second straight season. After Washington, Chicago plays four teams — home vs. New Orleans, at Baltimore, at Cincinnati, home vs. the Giants — that have a combined record of 4-12. Considering the bad teams and injured good teams they’ll be facing, the Bears could, maybe even should, have a winning record when they visit the Vikings on Nov. 16.

Week 5 picks

49ers (+7) at Rams: Puca Nacua is on pace for 179 catches for 2,138 yards and Justin Jefferson’s title as best receiver on the planet. Rams 31, 49ers 17

Vikings (-3½) vs. Browns: In this week’s Battle of the Backups Thriller in London, what’s left of the Cleveland offensive line is less horrible than what’s left of the Vikings offensive line. Browns 14, Vikings 9

Giants (+1½) at Saints: The Giants haven’t won consecutive games since Brian Daboll’s career wasn’t doomed (Dec. 2023). Saints 17, Giants 14

Texans (-1½) at Ravens: If you’ve played football before and have no injuries, send a résumé and cover letter to the Baltimore Ravens football club at … Ravens 20, Texans 15

Raiders (+6½) at Colts: Just sounds weird, Daniel Jones ranks third in on-target throws: 80.7%. Colts 32, Raiders 21

Buccaneers (+3) at Seahawks: Still sounds weird, Sam Darnold ranks first in on-target throws: 82.8%. (Does that make Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak this year’s QB Whisperer?) Buccaneers 28, Seahawks 24

Dolphins (-1½) at Panthers: Sweet music to Tua Tagovailoa’s brain, Carolina has two sacks in four games. Two. Dolphins 21, Panthers 17

Broncos (+4½) at Eagles: Philly is 26th in yards per pass (5.47), 29th in yards per run (3.47) and first in it doesn’t matter (Tush Push). Eagles 26, Broncos 21

Cowboys (-1½) at Jets: What’s worse than a tie when you score 40 with no turnovers at home? Losing to an 0-4 Jets team that’s 3-15 since its last game with a winning record. Jets 34, Cowboys 28

Titans (+8½) at Cardinals: Cardinals and lock are two words to be very afraid of, Survivor Pool enthusiasts, but Tennessee might just be that bad. Cardinals 27, Titans 21

Commanders (+2½) at Chargers: Week 4 saw the Chargers join Minnesota and Cleveland to confirm that winning without an offensive line is darn near impossible. Chargers 31, Commanders 27

Lions (-10½) at Bengals: Aidan Hutchinson has 32½ career sacks, the most ever by a Lion in his first four years. And, oh yeah, he missed 12 games in Year 3 and still has 13 left in Year 4. Lions 34, Bengals 10

Chiefs (-3) at Jaguars: Take away the takeaways and Jacksonville (league-high 13 takeaways) loses to K.C. (league-low one giveaway). Chiefs 27, Jaguars 23

How long will Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid, left, and tackle Ryan Van Demark be celebrating being undefeated? (Adrian Kraus/The Associated Press)

Upset special

Patriots (+8½) at Bills: We’re all so high on the Bills right now. How high? So high, they’re bound to lose. Patriots 34, Bills 28

Season results

Last week’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Eagles 24. Final: Eagles 31, Buccaneers 25. Record: 0-3.

Last week/season straight up: 9-7/29-19.

Last week/season against the spread: 5-11/19-29.

about the writer

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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