Analysis: What to make of the weird NFC North?

A quarter of the way through the season and the NFC North is among the best, if not the best, divisions in the league. Packers and Lions are contenders, Vikings are surviving while hurt and the Bears have made strides.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
October 7, 2025 at 5:36PM
The Packers and Lions are the class of the NFC North, but the Vikings have stayed afloat despite injuries taking a toll. Now on a bye week, they could be healthy when they return to action Oct. 19 against Philadelphia. (Carlos Gonzalez/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

At roughly a quarter of the way through the 2025 NFL season, the best way to sum up the strength of the NFC North is with a firm, definitive …

A: Ask again later; B: Cannot predict now; C: Reply hazy, try again.

Answer? D: All of the above.

The division has 11 victories. Only the NFC West has more (12).

But …

The Lions, Packers, Vikings and Bears are a combined 2-4 against teams that currently have a winning record. The Packers are 2-0, the Lions and Vikings 0-1 and the Bears 0-2.

The 4-1 Lions are riding a four-game winning streak.

But …

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They’ve beaten four losing teams with a combined 6-13 record.

The Packers beat the Lions and Washington, the division’s two best wins.

But …

They also lost to Cleveland 13-10, the division’s worst loss.

The Lions appear to be the class of the division going forward.

But …

The next four weeks have them at Kansas City, home to Tampa Bay, off and home to the Vikings.

What kind of shape the Vikings will be in four weeks from now is anyone’s guess. You’d like to think the injury bug can’t get any worse, but raise your hand if you thought Sunday’s game-winning drive against the Browns would feature Carson Wentz behind a backup left tackle who shifted from right tackle earlier in the game, an undrafted left guard, a third-string center who never played the position in a game and a backup to the backup at right tackle.

Where the division goes from here, who knows?

Let’s take a look at some of what we’ve seen around the North so far:

Most Valuable Player

Jared Goff, Detroit | The Lions’ still-underrated star has joined Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks ever to complete at least 75% of their passes (75.2) with at least 12 touchdowns (12) and a passer rating of at least 120.0 (120.7) through five games.

Biggest Disappointment

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota | One of six quarterbacks drafted in the top 12 a year ago, McCarthy has been healthy enough for two starts. Two. The other five have started a combined 87 games (43-44). The immortal words of Bud Grant — “The best ability is availability” — never rang truer around these parts.

Biggest Surprise

Carson Wentz, Minnesota | Completing 9 of 9 passes for 71 yards on the 10-play, 80-yard game-winning drive against the Browns’ top-ranked defense raised Wentz’s record to 2-1.

New rule: When you do stuff like that, you should get to keep the starting job until you don’t do stuff like that. Call it the Nick Foles Rule. Wentz knows a thing or two about that one.

Best Stat

174 | That’s how many points the Lions have scored. It’s also a franchise record through five games, and it comes, unfortunately, at an embarrassing moment in time for those of us who thought losing last year’s offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, to the Bears would be a significant blow for the Lions. The Lions have scored 34 or more points in four straight games and lead the league in scoring average (34).

Signature Win

Packers 27, Lions 13 | Week 1

Let’s not assume the Lions were just off by their own account that day. The Packers rank second in fewest yards allowed per play (4.46) and per pass (5.24). Imagine how good they’d be if they had more than two takeaways, which ranks 30th.

Green Bay also has the only non-division win against a team that currently has a winning record, holding a Washington offense ranked eighth in scoring (26.8) to 18 points in Week 2.

The rest of the division doesn’t have a signature win.

Sorry, but Detroit’s 38-30 win at Baltimore in Week 3 has lost its luster as a signature moment. And beating the Bengals 48-10 (Vikings) or the Cowboys 31-14 (Bears) fall short of the bar set here as well.

Worst Stat

6.15 | That’s how many yards per rushing attempt the Bears are allowing. (They actually won at Vegas in Week 4 while allowing 7.7 yards a carry).

Should Chicago maintain this putrid pace, it would be historic. The franchise record is 5.35 in 2013. The NFL record is 6.4 by the 0-8 Cincinnati Reds in 1934. No team has been worse than 5.5 since the 1959 Washington Redskins.

(Unheralded) Newcomer of the Year

Tate Ratledge, right guard, Lions | Those of us predicting the Lions’ demise also based some of our logic on Detroit losing guard Kevin Zeitler to free agency and center Frank Ragnow to retirement. Unfortunately, we forgot that no team in the division is better at assembling talent than the folks currently working in Detroit.

That’s particularly true when it comes to the draft. Ratledge, a second-round pick, has played a significant role in solidifying the interior of Detroit’s O-line. (See: 224 yards rushing against the Ravens; No sacks of Goff in Weeks 2-4).

Comeback Player of the Year

Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Lions | As the Vikings cope with the kind of decimation that eventually took down the Lions’ defense a year ago, Hutchinson is making up for all that time he lost last year with a broken leg.

According to NextGen Stats, Hutchinson posted on Sunday in Cincinnati his third career game with at least five quarterback hits, one sack and a forced fumble. The only player to do it more times since the stat was started in 2006 is Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt (five).

What’s Next

Stay tuned | The way injuries consume this league, it’s darn near impossible to look too far ahead. So, naturally, we will look a month into the future for the NFC North.

Shield your eyes, Vikings fans.

The Packers and Bears have already had their bye weeks. The Vikings get theirs in Week 6 while the Lions have theirs in Week 8.

Let’s now rank the tasks over the next month from tallest to shortest:

1. Vikings: BYE, Philadelphia (4-1), at L.A. Chargers (3-2), at Detroit (4-1).

That’s three teams with a combined 11-4 record, two on the road and one on a short week (Thursday nighter in L.A.). They do, however, get a mini bye before playing at Detroit.

2. Lions: At Kansas City (2-3), Tampa Bay (4-1), BYE, Minnesota (3-2).

Three teams with a 9-6 record, but two at home.

3. Packers: Cincinnati (2-3), at Arizona (2-3), at Pittsburgh (3-1), Carolina (2-3).

The Bengals might be the second-worst team behind the Jets. And the Cardinals defeat themselves even at home.

4. Bears: At Washington (3-2), New Orleans (1-4), at Baltimore (1-4), at Cincinnati (2-3).

A combined record of 7-13. (And keep an eye out for the Hail Mary in Washington this time, fellas).

about the writer

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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