Souhan: Where would Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy be picked if the NFL draft were held today?

Perhaps the strangest statistic of the year, regarding the Vikings and their unpredictable young quarterback, is this:

The Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears are 0-2 when they face J.J. McCarthy.

The Lions and Bears are 12-4 against all other quarterbacks.

On Sunday, McCarthy and the Vikings again face the Bears and Caleb Williams, the first quarterback selected in McCarthy’s historic 2024 draft class.

Never, in the first 88 drafts in NFL history, had six quarterbacks been selected in the first round.

On April 25, 2024, teams chose six quarterbacks with the first 12 picks.

If that draft were held today, in what order would or should those quarterbacks be picked?

Here’s the order I thought they should have gone at the time: Daniels, Penix, Maye, Williams, Nix, McCarthy.

Here’s the order in which I think these players should be selected if the draft were held today.

He’s been spectacular this season while elevating a struggling Patriots franchise. He is a prototype — big, strong, mobile, with a powerful arm, able to make touch passes and with a great feel for the game. He may be the league MVP.

Daniels not only had the best rookie season of this group, but he had one of the best rookie seasons of all time while carrying Washington to the NFC Championship game. He remains a wonderful player who can do everything you want a quarterback to do, but he is skinny and he has missed games with two different injuries this season. Durability is the only question mark attached to him.

Nix can be erratic, but he has produced and won games with a rebuilding Broncos team. If Sean Payton can tame Nix’s wilder tendencies, he will be a star.

Last year, the Bears averaged 102 yards rushing per game and 4.0 yards per carry. This year, they’ve improved to 147.3 and 5.0.

Give Williams this: He has been at his best in the clutch.

Penix’s accuracy with the Falcons has been disappointing, but he has a quick release and was prolific in college, so I still see upside. He’s also played better of late.

I wanted to rate McCarty higher than this. I think he has guts and leadership skills. His good moments are spectacular.

But I couldn’t find a statistical justification for rating him higher than sixth at this point.

He was the only one of the top six draft picks who played in a college offense that emphasized the run, and he is the only one of the six who missed his rookie year because of injury.

That he is behind the others shouldn’t be surprising. That he often misses open receivers by a wide margin should be concerning.

And this is the analysis of someone who likes him and thinks he will eventually be a quality NFL quarterback.

Today, Williams and McCarthy will face off for the second time. McCarthy won their first matchup with a dramatic fourth-quarter performance.

McCarthy has played in four NFL games and won two of them, on the road, in difficult places to play, with clutch fourth quarters.