Opinion | What has the ICE surge really cost? And was it worth it?

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Minnesotans are practical people. We expect public money to be spent carefully, proportionally, with results that reflect what our population wants at reasonable cost. That’s why the recent federal immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota deserves a closer look — not only through ideology, but through arithmetic.

Precise, publicly verified figures tying arrests, detentions, transfers and deportations specifically to the recent Minnesota surge have not yet been released. What follows uses conservative, good-faith estimates based on standard federal per-diem rates, typical law-enforcement compensation structures, published ICE detention costs and widely reported ranges of activity. If anything, these figures likely understate the true cost, as they exclude classified expenses and many indirect impacts.

Public reporting indicates that roughly 3,000 federal immigration enforcement personnel have been deployed to the Twin Cities area for approximately one to two months. Using standard federal costs for lodging, meals, loaded wages, overtime, transportation, vehicles, equipment, supplies and administrative overhead, the direct federal cost of that deployment alone approaches $200 million, or roughly $3 million to $4 million per day.

That figure does not include detention, court proceedings, medical care or deportation costs.

When those are added — housing, food, security, medical services, transportation, hearings and removal flights — total federal public spending reasonably approaches $230 million over roughly two months.

These include:

Using conservative assumptions drawn from prior multiagency operations, it is reasonable to estimate tens of millions of dollars in additional Minnesota state and local costs during a surge of this scale. Even a cautious range of $25 million to $50 million represents money that Minnesota taxpayers pay directly, without federal reimbursement.

Those costs come on top of federal spending — not instead of it.

During the surge, thousands of people were detained or transported, many moved out of state for detention. Only a small fraction were ultimately deported. Even using conservative assumptions, the public cost per person actually deported can approach or exceed $1.5 million.

That number deserves to be stated plainly, because it reframes the discussion.

That comparison is not rhetoric. It is arithmetic.

Now consider the full public cost of the surge — roughly $230 million federally, plus tens of millions more borne by Minnesota.

That combined spending could:

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None of this argues against enforcing the law. It argues for proportionality, competence and care — values Minnesotans apply everywhere else public money is spent.

In military terms, the proportionality question becomes unavoidable. What battlefield commander would deploy 3,000 troops, operate for 30 to 60 days, and spend roughly $230 million — before state costs — to secure a “village” of 150 people? The action would be called something other than strategy and would trigger an immediate review with consequence.

In any complex system, operations like these must force a basic question. Either decisionmakers understood the full cost and accepted it, or they did not. If they understood it, taxpayers deserve an explanation. If they did not, taxpayers deserve better decisionmaking.

There is also a human dimension that deserves acknowledgment. Behind every dollar figure are families, workers and communities — on all sides — affected by disruption, uncertainty and fear. Fiscal responsibility and humanity are not opposing values. They are usually aligned.

Minnesotans are not asking for slogans. They are asking for transparency, competence and outcomes that justify the cost — financially and humanly.