The science of matching advertisers with TV shows is inexact at best.
At Compass Point Media in Minneapolis, planners were not impressed with the pilot episode of "Super Fun Night,'' one of the season's new shows on ABC.
The comedy starring Rebel Wilson got a decided thumbs-down from strategists at the division of advertising agency Campbell Mithun. Critics also panned the show. The Daily Beast said it was "the most disappointing" comedy of the new season.
But after its premiere two weeks ago, "Super Fun Night" was looking pretty good with a second-place finish for the night and a strong showing in the key 18-to-49 age demographic. Then, after the show's second episode, ratings slipped.
"There is no magic box that spits out a magic answer," said Melanie Skoglund, Media Point's director of media strategy, about picking new TV season hits. "Art mixes with science when we negotiate [ad placement] with a network."
For every "Breaking Bad,'' a five-season hit that seemingly came out of nowhere, there is a "Playboy Club,'' the 2011 drama that was canceled by NBC after three episodes. ABC's "Lucky 7,'' which followed the lives of fictional lottery winners, was canceled last week after two episodes.
But the stakes are large.
Although competition for advertising dollars is increasing in a media-fragmented world, TV is still king. Advertisers will spend more than $66 billion on TV spots in 2013, according to eMarketer, while digital video advertising will be in the $4 billion neighborhood.