It's definitely more complicated than it's ever been," said Tim Palmer, managing director at Minneapolis-based Nuveen Investments. Palmer was describing the quandary income-hungry investors face in the current unprecedented six-year run of historically low interest rates.
For much of the past 25 years, investors could purchase highly liquid risk-free U.S. government securities and count on positive real returns while generating current income. But since the Federal Reserve dropped its key overnight federal funds rate to near zero at the depths of the Great Recession and held it there, retirees and other investors who rely on their portfolios for interest and dividend income have struggled in their search for yield.
"Risk-free is now priced like risk-free," Palmer said, meaning income-seeking investors need to look beyond U.S. treasuries. Palmer, who manages the $1.1 billion Strategic Income Fund, uses words like "nimble," "flexible" and "opportunistic" in describing the appropriate investment approach, saying investors need to "take some risk."
But investors also need to be aware of the kinds of risks they are taking on.
Most fixed-income investors think about three kinds of risk. The first is the risk that a corporation or government will default and stop paying interest on its debt. That's easy enough to understand, but hard to predict, which is why "junk bonds" viewed as more risky than AAA-rated debt pay a higher coupon.
The second kind of risk, interest rate risk, is more complicated. In the world of fixed income investing, bond prices have an inverse relationship to interest rates, which means when interest rates rise, the price of the underlying bond falls. As the market anticipates the Fed beginning to loosen interest rates later this year, interest rate risk enters into investor thinking as well.
Currency risk is important for investors holding international debt, highlighted by the recent rapid rise of the dollar against major global currencies.
Palmer's approach to fixed income investing is to spread risk across multiple classes of debt securities. Palmer is diversifying into both high-quality and high-yield corporate debt, as well as international debt and some preferred stocks that are a hybrid of debt and equity securities.