‘For all the marbles’: Upheaval in the Minnesota Senate puts DFL control in play

Control of the closely divided Minnesota Senate is once again in play as Republicans and Democrats compete for a pair of seats that could shift the balance of the chamber.

Before this week, Democrats held a 34-33 seat majority after retaining a Minneapolis seat in January that came open when Sen. Kari Dziedzic died.

Another seat opened Monday after the death of 75-year-old Sen. Bruce Anderson, a Republican, and a second will be vacated in early August through the resignation of Sen. Nicole Mitchell, a Democrat.

Anderson and Mitchell each won their seats by comfortable margins in their last elections, and flipping either would be a major upset. Even so, leaders in both parties are pledging to mount serious efforts to do just that.

“The stakes are so high. Why wouldn’t you?” asked Jeff Hayden, a former DFL senator from Minneapolis and current lobbyist for Fredrikson Government Relations. “If you could pick up that seat — either one — you’ve changed the balance of power in the Legislature dramatically.”

Republican Party Chair Alex Plechash said he thought Republicans stood a strong chance in Mitchell’s district. Candidates have been lining up for that race for more than a year since Mitchell’s arrest after she broke into her stepmother’s house in the spring of 2024. She was convicted of felony burglary charges by a jury last week.

“The worst-case scenario is that we end up still in the minority,” he said, “but there is an opportunity to take the majority if we happen to win both of these special elections.”

Mitchell, a first-term senator, won her seat, which covers Woodbury and other southeastern suburban areas, in 2022 with nearly 59% of the vote.

The area, which has fallen into different Senate districts over the decades, was represented by members of both parties in the early 2000s. Democrats, however, have represented the Woodbury area in the Senate since 2012.

Republicans say Mitchell’s coming departure is the opportunity they need to retake the seat. Former Senate GOP Leader Amy Koch said Mitchell’s decision to stay in the Senate for the 15 months between her arrest and trial could create a problem for Democrats.

“While I still think it’s advantage Democrats because of the makeup of the seat, I think it could make it a more interesting race. And of course, it’s for all the marbles,” she said.

To compete in the blue-leaning suburban area, Koch said, Republicans need to nominate someone who fits the district. “If the Republicans put in someone super extreme or far-right, that’s also going to play into it. And [it’s] not going to go well no matter how much money they spend,” Koch said.

“I think there is definitely opportunity for a potential Republican pickup,” Fenton said.

Fenton teased a potential run on social media the same afternoon Mitchell was convicted, but said it was in jest. She said she heard from state and local Republican leaders asking her to consider a run, but she isn’t planning to jump into the fray.

“Currently, right now, today, I am enjoying life outside of politics,” Fenton said.

Fenton said Woodbury has “some fabulous, good-quality Republican candidates.”

Democrats, meanwhile, are confident they will retain the seat. The two DFL state representatives from the area, Ethan Cha and Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger have both said they intend to run.

“Having a candidate who understands how to work across the aisle … is very important and critical to my district,” he said.

DFL Party Chair Richard Carlbom said the 2020 redistricting made the seat even stronger for Democrats and believes they will win it again — and any open House seat that may be left vacant by Cha or Hemmingsen-Jaeger.

“I’m pretty confident,” he said.

Anderson’s former seat covers farm and lake country west of the Twin Cities, including the cities of Buffalo, Monticello, and Annandale. Anderson cruised to victory with at least 60% of the vote in every election since 2012.

Republicans see Anderson’s seat as unlikely to flip to Democratic control.

“I do think we have a chance to compete,” he said.

Polling, however, shows that support for the DFL has slipped in much of greater Minnesota even as it has intensified in the Twin Cities metro. Hayden, the Democratic lobbyist, said it’s unlikely the Democratic candidate could pull off an upset.

“I’m not sure we’re quite ready to get to Buffalo yet,” Hayden said.