While preparing for a review meeting with a client earlier this month, we waited for President Donald Trump to address the nation. It was the morning after Iran had fired missiles at U.S. military bases in Iraq. Although tensions in the Middle East have simmered down (relatively speaking) since the first week of January, it seemed Trump's first official public comments were worthy of our attention.
A few minutes into his speech, we had to abandon the news conference to commence a regularly scheduled client meeting. "Are you watching the president?" we asked the client after greetings were exchanged. "Why would I?" was his response. "You guys told me none of that stuff matters to my portfolio."
Countless times to countless clients, we have communicated the facts that presidential elections and geopolitical events might move markets in the short term, but rarely have meaningful long-term effect.
On the day a U.S. drone targeted and killed Iran Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the S&P 500 fell 0.71%. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 234 points. After four days — a period that included Iran's retaliation and missile firings — the major equity indexes were back at all-time highs. If the stock market had a Richter scale, the entire episode would hardly have registered a tremor.
Fleeting impact of big news
In an age where most of us carry internet access in our pockets, it's more difficult than ever to ignore the troubles of the world. Political dysfunction and military conflict may not be any more prevalent in 2020, but they sure feel more saturating. It's important to acknowledge these events and consider their real world consequences. Just don't allow them to influence major investment decisions.
Before the pop-up conflict with Iran, our country's trade war with China was the international battle most difficult for investors to ignore. Earlier this week, American and Chinese representatives signed "Phase One" of a formal agreement, marking the unofficial end to a chapter in this ongoing saga.
It has been 18 months since the first U.S. tariffs were imposed on Chinese goods by the Trump administration. In that time, the S&P and Dow have risen 15% to 20%. That's better annualized performance than historical averages and nothing remotely close to the economic banana peel some predicted.
That brings us to the pending impeachment trial of our president, the latest act in a political theater devoid of bipartisan actors. Make no mistake, it's a sad state of affairs no matter which side of the aisle you sit on, but impeachment is not (and will not be) a legitimate driver of stock prices. The market has already suggested as much. Since Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives on Dec. 18, the S&P has climbed 3%.