The 153rd Belmont Stakes returns to its rightful position as the third jewel in the Triple Crown this year after a one-year reshuffling of the schedule. "The Test of Champions" has attracted an extremely competitive field of three-year-old colts, many of which have resumes befitting of a classic winner.
The conundrum is which handicapping angle will be the winning angle. Do you favor the horses exiting the roughly run Kentucky Derby? Do you like the rapidly improving Preakness winner? Or do you like the new shooter making his Triple Crown debut?
The Kentucky Derby looked more like the Royal Rumble the first 100 yards out of the gate. The two Belmont entrants most impacted by the early bumping were ESSENTIAL QUALITY and ROCK YOUR WORLD. ESSENTIAL QUALITY was bumped and jostled early but recovered shortly after to get back into the mix. ROCK YOUR WORLD was basically eliminated at the start as his jockey was nearly ejected after being bumped multiple times out of the gate. BOURBONIC and KNOWN AGENDA's closing style allowed them to bypass much of the early chaos but both encountered their own traffic problems as they slalomed through the 19-horse field. HOT ROD CHARLIE had a pretty uneventful trip although he was squeezed somewhat just before crossing the finish line the first time. The fact that horses that had the best trips in the Derby finished first, second and third should not be discounted.
The Preakness Stakes was where many were introduced to ROMBAUER who easily disposed of 10 other runners. Many of the Derby participants decided to bypass the second jewel to focus on the Belmont or other summer stakes. This left the Preakness a little lacking as far as depth. Yes, the Derby winner was entered but many handicappers thought he was suspect in the Derby but was gifted the dream trip, avoiding all the trouble. Then came the positive test result and he was unable to replicate his Derby form in the Preakness. FRANCE GO DE INA also showed up in Baltimore to make his US debut and the class jump showed as he showed some speed early and tired.
The new kid invited to the Belmont party is OVERTOOK. This son of Curlin, out of an A.P. Indy mare is bred to run forever which answers the mile-and-a-half question. Is trained by Todd Pletcher who has won three Belmont Stakes (all the other trainers are looking for their maiden Belmont victory). And is adding blinkers which should help him focus. However, this colt would have to drastically improve to be in the mix at the finish.
Now that the field of eight has been presented, it's time to make our selections. Here's what I'm thinking. Who do you like?
Contenders
ESSENTIAL QUALITY has done little wrong in his six-race career after being undefeated pre-Derby. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and Eclipse Award Winner as Champion Two-Year-Old started his three-year-old in style winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn easily. Then in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, he had to chase a lone speed horse (which is not his preferred running style) before wearing him down late to prevail by a neck. As noted, his Kentucky Derby trip was less than ideal getting bumped early and racing ride throughout. The sire Tapit has bred three Belmont winners in the last seven years and this royally bred son could make in four. Expect a bounce back performance today.
ROMBAUER is a colt who is improving measurably at the right time of year. As mentioned earlier, the Blue Grass Stakes was a paceless race and that didn't fit his closing style. Therefore, his third-place finish was better than it looked on paper. Those that recognized that effort in the Blue Grass were rewarded handsomely in the Preakness as the early pace set up perfectly for his style and this horse took full advantage. Now the question remains, what kind of field did he beat in the Preakness? He will probably need to make another step forward to beat this quality field but if he does, watch out.
HOT ROD CHARLIE tries hard every race and has a ton of heart. He's probably at his best when he can dictate terms on the front end but with the presence of ROCK YOUR WORLD, that may not happen. However, the connections have stated he is learning to relax and his workouts recently have validated that assertion. That fact that he's a stayer, the distance should not be an issue and I expect him to be there at the end.
The Pletcher horses can't be dismissed. Do BOURBONIC, KNOWN AGENDA and OVERTOOK need to improve off their career best? Absolutely. But if any trainer can spark a quicka quick metamorphosis, it's Pletcher.
Wagering Strategy
$50 Win Essential Quality
$30 Exacta Essential Quality/Rombauer
$5 Trifecta Essential Quality/Rombauer/Bourbonic, Hot Rod Charlie, Known Agenda, Overtook)
$100 Total Bet
Jay Lietzau is the Star Tribune's handicapper at Canterbury Park, where he's picked winners at a 34% rate so far this year and is 6-for-10 with his Lock of the Day. Follow him on Twitter at @JaysPlaysStrib and get his daily selections from Canterbury here.
