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Active Weather Pattern, Mostly Missing Minnesota

another beefy storm is set to take shape across the Central US, where winter weather headlines have been posted from Oklahoma City to Detroit. A significant amount of snow and ice could complicate things rather severely through midweek. For us, it'll just be cold. Another Siberian slap arrives today with some +30mph wind gusts and tumbling temps. Wind chills go sub-zero this evening and likely won't return above zero until Saturday. Happy February! Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

February 1, 2022 at 3:30AM

Major Winter Storm in the Central US

Take a look at the winter weather alerts that stretch from the Front Range of the Rockies and Texas all the way to Detroit and the Eastern Great Lakes. This will be a long duration event that could bring significant amounts of snow and ice to portions of the Central US from Tuesday into Friday. There will also be strong winds, which could create power outages and severe travel impacts.

Winter Weather Headlines (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

Here's the extended snowfall outlook through the week and weekend ahead. Note the heavy swath of snow from the Central US to the Northeast. Some of the heaviest snow could easily exceed 6" from the Middle Mississippi Valley to parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Region and even into the Northern New England States. Keep in mind that there will significant travel disruptions in these areas as the storm unfolds over the coming days.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Freezing Rain/Sleet Potential

Here's the freezing rain and sleet potential through the week, which shows areas of icing from Texas to the Northern New England States. Not only will the icing potential cause very slick roads, but there could also be power outages if icing and wind gusts become significant enough.

ECMWF Extended Freezing Rain/Sleet Potential (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook through the middle part of the week shows a very large area of precipitation developing across the Central US around midweek. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible in the Southern US with flood concerns for some. There will also be enough cold air in place for heavy snow and icing to take shape across the Front Range of the Rockies and into the Southern Plains all the way to the Northeast through the end of the week. This will likely be a large and disruptive storm system for many over the first several days of February.

National Weather Outlook through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minneapolis January Stats

Here are the January stats for Minneapolis. Note that the average temperature for Minneapolis was nearly -6F below average, but snowfall was actually pretty close to average. Interestingly, January is typically our 2nd snowiest month of the year behind December, which averages almost 12".

Minneapolis January Stats (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Windy Tuesday & Much Colder 2nd Half of Week

Here's the weather outlook closer to home through the end of next week. An area of low pressure will scoot along the international border midweek with areas of light snow across northern MN. Winds will quickly switch to the NW with much colder temps in place on Wednesday and through the rest of the week.

Weather Outlook From AM Tuesday to AM Saturday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

The latest snow depth reports show a fairly decent base across the region. The Metro was reporting around 7" as of Monday morning, but has you head north, there are some double digit reports. According to the MN DNR Snowmobile and cross-country ski trails are generally reported to be in good to very good conditions across the northern half of the state. Trails in the southern half of the state are reported to poor condition with little to now snow on the ground there.

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Snow Depth As Of Monday Morning (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Seasonal Snowfall So Far

Here's a look at how much snow we've seen so far this season. Note the Twin Cities has seen nearly 33", which is +3.5" above average. Grand Forks, ND has seen nearly 40" of snow, which is nearly 1ft above average! Heading south into South Dakota, many locations there are below average and more than 1ft below average in Pierre and Huron. Folks in southern Wisconsin are also nearly 1ft below average, including Madison and Milwaukee. The Golden Snow Shovel award winner goes to Marquette, MI, where nearly 114" of snow has fallen, which is only a few inches above average.

Snowfall So Far This Season (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Cold Start to February

Here's the 850mb temp anomaly through the first few days of February, which shows cold temps in place with highs running well below average.

850mb Temp Anomaly From AM Tuesday to AM Saturday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tuesday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows falling temps through the day with very windy conditions in place. Northwest wind gusts could approach 35mph, which could cause blowing snow concerns across the northern half of the state.

Tuesday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday show temps starting around the freezing mark in the morning and will cool into the teens through the afternoon. West to Northwesterly winds will gust to near 35mph through much of the day making it feel quite cold on the first day of February.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions for Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wind Chill Values Tuesday

Feels like temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday will be quite cold with readings dropping through the day. It'll likely feel sub-zero by mid/late afternoon.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Tuesday

High temps across the region on Tuesday will likely occur early in the day as temps fall to well below average levels by late afternoon. Winds will be quite strong with areas of blowing snow across the northern half of the state.

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Weather Outlook on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows highs falling into the single digits on Wednesday and Thursday. Midweek temps will be nearly -15F to -20F below average. However, highs on Saturday will warm to above average levels once again.

5 Day Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

It's be a cold first few days of February with temps running well below average midweek. The cold air is fairly short-lived, though as temps warm to near 30F again over the weekend, which. The next several days look quiet with no snow events unfolding close to home

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, will be quite cold through the first few days of February. However, we'll warm to near and above average levels by the weekend and into early next week.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows below average temps across the Southern US. However, warmer than average temps will develop across the High Plains

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather across the Western US and Central US. Meanwhile, more active weather will be found along the Front Range of the Rockies and the Gulf Coast.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Active Weather Pattern, Mostly Missing Minnesota
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Happy February everyone! Believe it or not, we're less than 8 weeks away from the Vernal Equinox, which arrives on Sunday, March 20th. My gut tells me that we'll have plenty more snow and cold to go around before then, but we'll see what Punxsutawney Phil has to say on the matter tomorrow morning for Groundhog Day.

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The 30-year average suggests that the MSP Airport sees around 10 inches of snow during the month of February. However, who could forget the record 39 inches fell in February 2019? That was a doozy.

I don't see much heavy snow potential close to home in the coming days, but another beefy storm is set to take shape across the Central US, where winter weather headlines have been posted from Oklahoma City to Detroit. A significant amount of snow and ice could complicate things rather severely through midweek.

For us, it'll just be cold. Another Siberian slap arrives today with some +30mph wind gusts and tumbling temps. Wind chills go sub-zero this evening and likely won't return above zero until Saturday. Happy February!

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Brisk wind. Few Flakes. Winds: WNW 15-30. High: 33 & falling.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Breezy & cold. Winds: NW 15-25. Low: -2. Feels Like: -15F.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny & cold Groundhog Day. Winds: NNW 8-13. High: 8.

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THURSDAY: Icy sunshine. Feeling numb & number. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: -9. High: 4.

FRIDAY: Not as frigid. A few flakes/flurries. Winds: SSW 5-10. Wake-up: -12. High: 14.

SATURDAY: A breezy & milder south wind returns. Winds: SSE 10-15. Wake-up: 0. High: 31.

SUNDAY: A little light snow potential. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 15. High: 21.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and clouds. Not too chilly. Winds: SSW 5-10. Wake-up: 2. High: 30.

This Day in Weather History

February 1st

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1931: A 'heat wave' develops across southern Minnesota. St. Peter hits 60.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

February 1st

Average High: 25F (Record: 54F set in 1931)

Average Low: 9F (Record: -28F set in 1951)

Record Rainfall: 0.89" set in 1922

Record Snowfall: 4.3" set in 1899

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Twin Cities Almanac For February 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

February 1st

Sunrise: 7:31am

Sunset: 5:21pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 49 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 34 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 Hour & 3 Minutes

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Moon Phase for February 1st at Midnight

1.0 Days Since New Moon

Moon Phase For January 30th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows above average temps across the Central US with readings running nearly +5F to +10F above average in advance of of a large storm system that will develop midweek. Colder air will begin funneling in from the north, which will really settle in across the Central US through the second half of the week.

National Weather Outlook Tuesday (Praedicitix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook into through midweek shows a large storm system developing Tuesday into Wednesday across the Central US. Areas of heavy rain will develop across the Southern US with heavy snow developing in the Central US.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be found across parts of the Southern US with several inches of precipitation possible in the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast States.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Potential

Here's the extended snowfall potential through the first several days of February. Note that we could be looking at a band of heavy snow across the Central US and into the Great Lakes/Northern New England States.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Signs of an Unknown Solar 'Tsunami' Have Been Discovered Deep Inside Earth's Ice"

"Deep beneath the ice in Greenland and Antarctica, researchers have found signs of an enormous solar 'tsunami' that once crashed against Earth's atmosphere more than 9,000 years ago. This ancient superstorm was triggered by a wave of hot plasma and magnetism from the Sun, and it is significantly larger than anything we have recorded in recent history. The findings have got scientists concerned about our ability to predict when the Sun is going to let loose next. Solar storms on Earth occur every few years, when the Sun's activity is at a peak, but this ancient superstorm is on a whole other scale, and it appears to have struck during a quiet phase of the solar cycle."

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'This 16-acre Atlanta park was built to flood"

In the Vine City neighborhood outside of downtown Atlanta, a few city blocks faced a persistent threat. Filled with the modest homes of the neighborhood's primarily Black community, this area was the low point in a 150-acre drainage shed. During storms, when water from the entire neighborhood rushed down into the combined sewer and stormwater system, the area would regularly flood. It got so bad that by the early 2000s, the city decided to buy up the most vulnerable 60 homes and tear them down. With an average annual rainfall of about 50 inches, the problem was not necessarily solved. So the city of Atlanta and the Trust for Public Land teamed up to find a new use for the space. They hired global design, planning, and landscape architecture firm HDR to design a park for the land—the kind of open space that wouldn't upend people's lives if it got a little too wet.

"Ancient solar storm smashed Earth at the wrong part of the sun's cycle — and scientists are concerned"

"An extremely powerful solar storm pummeled our planet 9,200 years ago, leaving permanent scars on the ice buried deep below Greenland and Antarctica. A new study of those ancient ice samples has found that this previously unknown storm is one of the strongest outbursts of solar weather ever detected and would have crippled modern communications systems if it had hit Earth today. But perhaps most surprising, the massive storm appears to have hit during a solar minimum, the point during the sun's 11-year cycle when solar outbursts are typically much less common, according to the study, published Jan. 11 in the journal Nature Communications. Because of this unexpected discovery, the study researchers are concerned that devastating solar storms could hit when we least expect them — and that Earth might not be prepared when the next big one arrives."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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