More than half of Americans think Donald Trump is unfit to serve as president, yet he has a clear path to winning re-election. If Trump isn't removed from office and doesn't lead the country into some form of global catastrophe, he could secure a second term simply by maintaining his current level of support with his political base.
We have entered a new era in American politics. The 2016 election exposed how economic, social and cultural issues have splintered the country and increasingly divided voters by age, race, education and geography. This isn't going to change.
What have changed are the political fault lines that have driven the debate since the early 1980s. Until now, the ideological divides between the parties were largely differences around social issues, defense spending and trade, as well as tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations. Today, the central issue has become populism, as voters have moved away from the two political parties and increasingly self-identified as independents.
In 2016, Trump capitalized on this, consolidating the growing number of angry voters who felt let down by the people and institutions controlling power in the country. Trump's support from these voters is personal, not ideological. That explains their willingness to stick with him despite his failures of leadership. Since Trump's inaugural address, his focus has been on maintaining his support among this loyal base rather than expanding it. As counterintuitive as it may seem, this could be a winning strategy.
First, Trump knows that gaining the support of a majority of voters in a presidential election is not a requirement; in fact, two out of the last three presidents were elected despite losing the popular vote.
Second, the continued decline in support for both political parties works to Trump's advantage. It increases the probability that there will be a major third-party candidate on the 2020 ballot. It also will lead to other minor-party candidates joining the presidential race. The multicandidate field will further divide the anti-Trump vote, making it possible for him to get re-elected simply by holding on to his current level of support.
Third, despite dismal poll numbers, Trump enters the contest with a job approval level that is certainly at least marginally better than current national polls would suggest. Throughout the 2016 campaign, polls failed to capture Trump's strength in key battleground states. Current surveys continue to understate his support. Many national polls survey all eligible voters, rather than registered or likely voters, which can underestimate Trump, and some voters may be reluctant to admit that they are pro-Trump at all.
Add to that the fact that Trump effectively demonstrated during the 2016 campaign that he is capable of expanding his support by effectively demonizing his opponents.
