Why Democrats see Amy Klobuchar as such a formidable candidate for governor

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar has joined the race for Minnesota governor, bringing a history of performing better with Republican voters than other members of her party.

With no significant opposition within the DFL so far, Klobuchar appears to have a clear runway to secure the party’s nomination after Gov. Tim Walz abandoned his bid for a third term.

That’s a sign of Klobuchar’s DFL influence, but it also reflects that many Democrats are betting she is popular enough to overcome the fraud scandals in Minnesota’s welfare programs that have damaged the party.

“She’s a game-changer, no question,” said former Republican Gov. Arne Carlson, who was critical of Walz’s decision to try for another term. “It’s like putting Kirby Puckett in the lineup.”

Klobuchar, first elected to statewide office in 2006, has nearly 20 years of polling and electoral data to back up those claims. But several Republican challengers who’d been critical for months of Walz’s record on fraud in state social service programs quickly shifted the critique to Klobuchar, arguing she would continue Walz’s policies and pointing out her long-standing support of him.

“Minnesotans only need to look at [Klobuchar’s] record to know that she simply cannot deliver the change that our state needs, and would be nothing more than a third term of Tim Walz,” said Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth, a Republican running for governor. “Amy Klobuchar did nothing while fraudsters exploited our generosity and stole millions of our tax dollars.”

Demuth launched a new ad Jan. 29 featuring Klobuchar saying of Walz during his 2024 vice presidential bid: “We love a dad in plaid.”

Klobuchar’s approval rating has also been consistently higher than Walz’s in greater Minnesota and among independent voters.

She has also won her campaigns for re-election by much higher margins.

In 2012, she lost only two Minnesota counties to challenger Kurt Bills, netting a margin of more than 30 percentage points. She bested former NBA player Royce White by a comfortable 16-percentage-point margin in 2024.

Klobuchar has also benefited from running against Republican opponents who have not been political veterans with strong bases of statewide political support. Two were state House members, White was a former NBA player, and her first, Mark Kennedy, was a sitting congressman from west of the Twin Cities.

Once Klobuchar handily beat Kennedy in 2006, top-level Republicans have avoided running against her, said Jeff Blodgett, a DFL operative who has worked with Klobuchar in the past.

But Klobuchar, like many DFL politicians, has dealt with a loss of support largely in rural areas since 2012. The only counties where her support has stayed the same or grown since then are highly urban Hennepin and Ramsey counties and Cook — one of the bluest in the state. She has lost support everywhere else.

Klobuchar’s image as a moderate with bipartisan leanings and her reputation of invincibility may have taken a hit after her failed campaign for president in 2020. White flipped 29 counties in 2024, Klobuchar’s first time on the ballot since her presidential bid.

Pat Garofalo, a former Republican state representative, said he thinks the decline in Klobuchar’s victory margins is because “there’s just been more straight-ticket voting” in Minnesota as the state and country have become more polarized. “That’s reflected in all candidates, not just Amy Klobuchar.”

Despite Klobuchar’s weakening hold on greater Minnesota, she is still better at attracting split-ticket voters than other Democrats.

Klobuchar overperformed the national Harris-Walz ticket in 2024 by double-digits in Minnesota, the most of almost any other U.S. Senate Democrat in their respective states. The only other senator who did better, Montana’s Jon Tester, ultimately lost his seat.

Mower County has continued to support Klobuchar, said Dave Sylte, a local DFL party official, because she’s visited the area repeatedly over the years and holds “pretty pragmatic, moderate positions on issues.”

Carlson said whoever wins the election will have their work cut out for them, mentioning the ongoing fraud issue, fights between state officials and the federal government, and the federal immigration enforcement that has swarmed Minnesota streets in recent weeks.