investing kay allen |
Most of us consider ourselves logical and objective when we invest (or make any decision, for that matter). Yet subtle biases and behaviors strongly influence us. Here's what to guard against when handling your money.
Recency bias
This tendency to use past events to predict future success shows up as you pick investments based on the holdings' recent performance (aka chasing returns).
For example, perhaps you once picked a fabulous oil and gas stock or fund that was performing exceptionally well. Scrutinize your portfolio now and you see that your energy holding disappoints you. Some people, figuring that energy investments will continue to crater, might sell.
A decline in your investment today doesn't necessarily mean you chose poorly; in fact, this might be a good time to buy more of the same stock. Short-term trading can net big gains or big losses. Returns on stock indexes such as the Standard & Poor's 500, however, show steady gain over time.
Confirmation bias
We all seek out information that supports our own view on a subject. How does that affect us in investing? When you like a specific investment, you tend to read or listen to only positive information about that investment or company.
For example, you may think gold is a good investment because you believe that inflation is about to kick in (a possible fallacy, by the way). Naturally you read and remember only news articles and other reports supporting gold's importance as prices rise.
Negativity bias
We tend to recall bad memories instead of pleasant ones. So when we hear bad news — about, say, a down day on Wall Street — we often give that information more credence. This bias can devastate your investing; you might be inclined to sell on the market dips, hurting your returns.
To help avoid the effects of this bias, set an investing plan and stick to it. The market remains unpredictable, and be leery of anyone who says otherwise. If you need guidance, seek a professional adviser.