What Trump’s bailout means for Minnesota farmers

WASHINGTON, D.C. – One farmer seated next to President Donald Trump on Monday called the bailout a Christmas present. A cabinet secretary said the $12 billion aid package — called a bridge — would usher in a new “golden age” of farming.

But beneath the surface of the major farmland assistance program announced this week, farmers hurting from stubbornly low commodity prices, persistent sticker-shock for fertilizer and Trump’s ongoing trade war with major trading partners like China were like the children after unwrapping gifts and still looking for one more present behind the bookshelf.

The aid package includes $11 billion for row crop farmers and another $1 billion for specialty growers and sugar producers, vital in Minnesota’s Red River Valley. That’s roughly half the amount of funds sent to farmers in 2018 and 2019.

Agriculture staffers on Capitol Hill say the plan, with details still to be released, appears to promise paying out to farmers based on acres planted, regardless of their pain at the elevator.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, said in a post to X the announcement was “a strong step forward,” leaving open the possibility for more support down the road.

Still, in December, when farmers prep for the following season and come to terms with bankers, the aid might be enough of a shot in the arm to keep some defaulting on loan obligations.

As during the first Trump administration, the ramifications (and politics) of these bailouts can be tricky to nail down. Here’s what we know.

But row-croppers — in Minnesota that largely means corn and soybeans — are hurting. The national soybean lobby says farmers will lose nearly $100 on every planted acre this year, even with strong harvests. In the Red River Valley, sugar beet farmers faced a tough year, too.

The peril is seen in numbers for the University of Minnesota Extension’s farmer lender mediation program, which protects farmers on the brink of default.

Through September, the program had issued 1,896 notices in 2025, the highest total since 2020. Bankruptcy attorneys say the picture will worsen over the winter.

No. The Trump administration connects today’s economic woes to President Joe Biden’s time in office, blaming historic inflation rates coming out of the pandemic and a higher trade deficit.

American farmers are “facing a crisis that we inherited,” said Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollings. “Profitability is down. ... It’s one crisis after another.”

“If you look at the soybean price, it’s not terrible,” said Darin Johnson, a farmer from south of Wells, Minn., and president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association. “But our cost of production has increased, or hasn’t come down [from record-high inflation], with the prices falling from three or four years ago.”

But there’s no doubt Trump’s trade policies have affected both the market for crops — such as China switching to ordering from South American farmers — to costs on equipment and chemicals needed to produce top yields.

A December report from the North Dakota State University Agricultural Trade Monitor in Fargo found a 9% tariff on inputs, such as seeds and fertilizer, has cost farmers $33.1 billion.

“These tariffs have profoundly affected U.S. agriculture, both through increased input costs,” the report concludes.

No, the plan unveiled — called the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program — is not funded by tariff revenue, contrary to what Trump said during Monday’s roundtable.

The fund was replenished earlier this fall when Congress struck a deal to reopen the government.

It is smaller than two in Trump’s first administration. The $12 billion aid program is roughly half of what farmers saw in 2018 and 2019.

According to the White House, qualifying farmers can expect payments by the end of February.

Agriculture experts say yes and no. According to the details made public by the Trump administration, the package is structured toward a range of commodities, from corn and soybeans to barley, rice and sunflower.

While many farmers staring at bankruptcy will receive per-acre payments, many wealthier farmers could also see aid. Eligibility for a farmer cuts off at an adjusted gross income over $900,000.

“The main problem with this program is that it’s going to be like all of the other farm subsidy programs,” said Anne Schechinger, Midwest director of the Environmental Working Group. “It’s sending money to the largest farms, and it’s not going to help people who are really struggling with this economic uncertainty.”

A U.S. Department of Agriculture spokesperson did not answer questions beyond information in the news release.

Some ag policy specialists already have begun to wonder aloud if crafting a complicated formula that would equitably mend crop farmers most impacted by tariffs requires people-power that the federal agency no longer has.

“The other concern is just the loss of capacity at USDA because of the changes they made internally because of the large layoffs,” said Ben Lilliston, the director of Rural Strategies and Climate Change at the Institute for Agriculture Trade Policy.

No. Agriculture economists say getting the commodity prices up requires stabilizing new overseas markets, or bringing down prices on inputs. Historically, America has proven better at the first.

According to a 2022 report from USDA’s Economic Research Service, farmland losses totaled more than $27 billion from the 2018 trade war. China’s share? 95%.

Gary Wertish, a Renville County farmer and president of Minnesota Farmers Union, said American farmers grow more grain than it needs and relies on trade to be profitable. Trade deals are the best route.