Twins reportedly are interested in Justin Masterson, so let's dig into the FA pitcher

Free agent movement has been sloooooow for the Twins this offseason, which shouldn't be surprising since baseball's hot stove generally takes a while to heat up.

Not much even qualifies as "news" yet on the Twins front, but there are rumblings, at least, that free agent pitcherJustin Masterson is on their radar.

Several other teams are also intrigued by Masterson, per that tweet from Jerry Crasnick, but it's worth at least a discussion of what kind of deal would make sense for the Twins … and what type of pitcher they would be getting if they landed him.

First off, Masterson fits the Phil Hughes mold of "buying low," since he's coming into his free agent season after a down year. Masterson was 7-9 with a 5.88 ERA with Cleveland and St. Louis last season. He entered the year as the Indians' ace; he ended it in shambles. Hughes, you'll recall, was 4-14 with a 5.19 ERA in 2013 with the Yankees before his very good 2014 season with the Twins.

Masterson, like Hughes, had two pretty good seasons out of the three preceding his real clunker, posting sub-3.50 ERAs and topping 190 innings in both 2011 and 2013 with Cleveland.

Most projections have Masterson looking for a one-year deal in order to build his value back up. MLB Trade Rumors pegs that deal at around $12 million per season — not exactly the same bargain as Hughes' three-year, $24 million deal in terms of annual value but less of a risk when it comes to the length.

Prior to 2014, he was looking for a multi-year extension from Cleveland in the $17 million/year neighborhood, but those talks broke off in spring training and we have to think the Indians are glad they did. (At the very least, noted Indians fan Bob Collins is glad they did and does not give Masterson a ringing endorsement).

On a one-year deal, the risk would be low. If he bombed, the Twins wouldn't be stuck with him or hoping he bounced back (like they are now with Ricky Nolasco). If he was great, they would reap the benefits of a good season. So if the Twins believe they need to improve their rotation and don't want to give a bunch of spots to youngsters — and the price is deemed fair — they might feel like he makes sense.

As a pitcher, the natural temptation is to again compare Masterson to Hughes, but his peripheral numbers don't quite match up.

Even before his tremendous 2014 campaign, Hughes had a career K/BB ration of 2.7 and averaged 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. His WHIP was 1.32. All of those numbers improved last year with the Twins (most notably his absurd 11.6 K/BB ratio), and he allowed just 0.7 homers per nine innings thanks to the spacious Target Field (and better command) after sitting at 1.3 HR/9 in his previous years playing his home games at the smaller Yankee Stadium.

Home runs have never been Masterson's problem; he's more of a sinkerballer than a fly ball pitcher and gives up just 0.7 homers per 9 innings for his career (same as Hughes did last season). He has about the same strikeout rate (7.5/9 innings) but he also walks 3.7 batters/9 innings for his career, giving him a career WHIP of close to 1.4. Most troubling: last year he walked 4.8 batters per 9 innings and had a WHIP of 1.63. Even Hughes in his down years with the Yankees was never above 1.49.

Also of note, as pointed out by Parker Hageman after this post went up initially: Masterson's career splits vs. right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters are absurd. He's allowing a .607 OPS to righties in his career, and a .794 to lefties. A team that can stack a lineup with quality lefties — some can, some can't — has a chance to feast on him.

Any team that rolls the dice with Masterson is obviously hoping they are getting the 2013 version instead of the 2014 version. What would likely happen is he would be somewhere in between, of course.

For the Twins, it would be unfair to expect the same kind of ballpark bump they got from Hughes since some of his improved command (both in terms of throwing strikes in general and throwing them where he wanted to throw them) can be attributed to not living in constant fear that every mistake would wind up over the fence. Masterson is by no means merely a "pitch to contact" groundballer as his nearly 200 Ks in 2013 can attest, but without a Target Field boost the Twins would be counting on him simply pitching better and also relying on their infield defense to make him look good.