RandBall: What if the geniuses running the Twins aren’t geniuses after all?

On balance, the Twins’ moves under Derek Falvey have been OK. But some recent developments have left a cloud over 2025, as Michael Rand notes in Monday’s 10 things to know.

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The Minnesota Star Tribune
July 21, 2025 at 4:31PM
Minnesota Twins catcher Christian Vázquez, left, confers with starting pitcher Chris Paddack after he gave up an RBI triple to Colorado Rockies' Jordan Beck in the first inning of a baseball game Friday. (David Zalubowski/The Associated Press)

On Friday, at the outset of their post-All Star break schedule against a comically weak Rockies team, the Twins sent affable but inconsistent righthander Chris Paddack to the mound.

Joe Ryan pitched in Tuesday’s All-Star game and wasn’t available. Pablo López is hurt. Bailey Ober is on a rehab assignment. And none of the Twins’ young pitchers are demonstrably better than Paddack, which is saying something in and of itself.

I happened to be in attendance at Coors Field on a family vacation. After a whirlwind tour through multiple food vendors, we settled into our seats at the start of the bottom of the first — just in time to see Paddack give up extra-base hits to the first four batters he faced. Four bites of nachos in, it was 4-0 Rockies, and Colorado was on its way to a 6-4 win and eventual rare series victory.

The game was perhaps a snapshot of what has gone wrong for the Twins not just this season but generally speaking in the last five years. Barring an unforeseen turnaround, the Twins will miss the postseason for the fourth time in five seasons after making the playoffs three of the first four years that Derek Falvey was in charge of baseball decisions.

Running a team that long inevitably will lead to a history of both good and bad moves. On balance, Falvey and Co. get a passing grade for the duration of the tenure — though not by much, and with the grade looking increasingly tenuous as we consider recent developments.

It was enough for Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse to muse on Monday’s Daily Delivery podcast, “I am turning on the [Twins] baseball department. I’m beginning to think they’re not very sharp.”

The specific subject of his ire was the Twins giving up on 100 mph-throwing reliever Jorge Alcala, who has been effective with Boston, instead of being able to help harness his talent.

Alcala was the last link to another regrettable trade, coming here in the deal that sent Ryan Pressly to Houston in 2018 (instead of the Twins being able to help Pressly excel).

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Paddack arrived with Emilio Pagán in a trade with the Padres just before the 2022 season. Sent out? Taylor Rogers, an effective relief pitcher; and Brent Rooker, who has developed into an All-Star slugger.

The Twins have stuck with Paddack through injuries and a 4.98 ERA in 44 appearances (42 starts) since then, and he was by default their best option Friday.

Again, there is some recency bias coming into play here. The balance sheet evens out over time: Ryan came over in the shrewd Nelson Cruz trade. For every Trevor Megill (an All-Star flourishing in Milwaukee) there’s a Brock Stewart succeeding here. For every free agent miss like Christian Vázquez, there’s a hit like Harrison Bader.

It adds up to very average — not awful, to be sure, but far from genius.

Here are nine more things to know today:

  • Lest you think I’m only pessimistic today, the two Royce Lewis home runs Sunday in Colorado are a great sign. About the only way I can imagine the Twins making a sustained post-break run is if Lewis leads it, and Sunday was the first glimpse we had that it might be possible.
    • If you are going to watch the Twins lose, there are far worse places to do it than Coors Field. The ballpark opened 30 years ago and still feels relatively new.
      • FanGraphs gives the Twins an 18.1% chance of reaching the postseason. That might not sound like much, but last year they had a better than 90% chance of making it before their collapse. So going in the other direction is possible.
        • Vikings training camp starts this week, which feels early but makes sense because, as Reusse pointed out, everything is early with a Sept. 1 Labor Day this year. Soon enough, the State Fair and school will be here. But shhhhhh, we don’t need to talk about vanishing summer yet.
          • I still think the Vikings’ over-under of 8.5 wins is criminally low. Reusse likes them as the NFC North favorites.
            • ESPN says the Vikings have the 11th-best starting lineup. Sounds like 10 wins to me.
              • Here’s a report card on how the young Wolves players fared during NBA Summer League, which wrapped up Sunday in Las Vegas with Charlotte taking the title.
                • Star Tribune intern Shelby Swanson, who has been covering the Lynx in recent weeks, is expected to be my guest on Tuesday’s podcast. The Lynx begin their post-break schedule with a batch of home games this week.
                  about the writer

                  about the writer

                  Michael Rand

                  Columnist / Reporter

                  Michael Rand is the Minnesota Star Tribune's Digital Sports Senior Writer and host/creator of the Daily Delivery podcast. In 25 years covering Minnesota sports at the Minnesota Star Tribune, he has seen just about everything (except, of course, a Vikings Super Bowl).

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