As we enjoyed the last of 17 consecutive days off of work (kinda, sorta, mostly) Monday, Local Quipster fought off a balky back and other assorted ailments to bring the conversation back to basics -- which is to say, back to sports. Who will win the six divisions in MLB, he asked, as we dried off temporarily between trips down a water slide (33 going on 8! Or Morneau going on Punto, if you prefer).
Our answers to the "other" five: Red Sox (pitching, plus this will keep Lizzy off our back for a while); Texas (Anaheim just doesn't have it this year, and the Rangers won't wilt for a change); Mets (Phillies will miss Utley and the Mets will pull off a major move that puts them over the top, such as Cliff Lee); Cardinals (Reds are a nice story, but St. Louis has too much); and Dodgers (we still don't believe in San Diego). For the record, LQ likes the Yankees. And he likes Cliff Lee to pitch at Target Field down the stretch.
But what about the AL Central? A 1.5-team race (with Detroit kind of in the mix) has turned into a three-team race with the Twins' stumbles. As David Brauer tweeted a couple days ago after the most recent calamity, the Twins are now 25-29 in their past 54 games. That's one-third of the season. That isn't good. (We confirmed those numbers with multiple anonymous online sources). They were 19-9 after a sweep of Detroit. And you know the rest.
They are a puzzling team. Their lineup is as deep right now as it has ever been. Justin Morneau, Delmon Young and Jim Thome have arguably exceeded expectations as of now. Orlando Hudson, Denard Span and Jason Kubel are at least close to what you would hope for. Joe Mauer hasn't shown the home run power of last year so far, but he has 24 doubles and is up over .300. And yet last year's team, with a lesser lineup, scored 5.01 runs/game compared to 4.66 so far this year.
Their defense, while compromised some to create such a lineup, has still committed just 32 errors in slightly more than half the season. That's still second-best in the AL behind the Yankees.
Every starting pitcher has at least six victories, and their total ERA as a starting staff is 4.31 -- middle of the pack in the American League. Their bullpen, despite recent meltdowns, has an AL-best 3.02 ERA.
So this is a team that, on paper, has a very good lineup ... a reliable defense ... decent starting pitching ... and numerically speaking the best bullpen in the league through the first half of the season. They look like a 95-win team on paper, which is why it's so puzzling to see them chugging toward a mid-to-upper-80s finish. Again. From this, then, some theories and conclusions can be tossed out:
*Is this one of those "sum of the parts is less than the whole" kinds of teams? Are there a bunch of stubborn puzzle pieces that just don't fit together? It's looked like that at times, including several times recently. But that doesn't hold up in the long run. Good teams figure out how to make all the parts move together.
