Let's start this post with a disclaimer: Do we think the Celtics are going to join the Bruins and pull a historic double-Red Sox/Yankees this playoff season, thus crushing the city of Boston? In terms of straight odds, no. Coming back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series is insanely rare. Nobody in their right mind would predict it would happen. But ... Even when Boston was up 2-0 in its series over Orlando, we had a strange feeling the Magic might fall behind 3-0 and then start to mount a comeback. That intuition at least gained strength last night when, on the verge of being swept, the Magic gutted out an OT win in Boston to give itself some life. Now, with Game 5 back in Orlando, there's at least a fighting chance for Orlando to make history. A comeback from a 3-0 deficit has never happened in the NBA. But there are factors at play that make us think the possibility is stronger in this series than it often is.
When starting work on this post, we came upon one of the greatest sites we had never seen: Who Wins. This is a treasure trove of playoff results, probabilities and history. Seriously, what a gold mine. From it, we found out a lot -- including the answer to our most basic question: how often in history has a team down 3-0 even won Game 4 of a playoff series in the "major" leagues of MLB, NHL and NBA. The answer: only about 35 percent of the time. (Note: Stats appear up to date through 2009 playoffs but don't include playoffs so far this year). Often, a team up 3-0 has either a considerable talent edge, a decided momentum edge, or both.
In the case of the Celtics vs. Magic, the Celtics clearly had the momentum. Orlando looked cooked in Game 3. Facing a Game 4 in Boston, the Magic could have rolled over. But that's where the talent edge -- which we'll say rests with Orlando over the long haul -- kicked in. The Magic got enough big performances and shots to take Game 4. Now the momentum has at least swung back close to neutral, and maybe slightly toward the Magic. And now a team that has the talent edge and the knowledge it can beat Boston (the Magic took 3 of 4 during the regular season and just won in Boston) has to be thinking, "Wait a minute. The first two games of this series were coin flips. We haven't really played all that well, but we're still alive. And we swept our first two playoff series. If we win Game 5 at home, suddenly it's 3-2. All the pressure in the world falls on Boston, while all the momentum is clearly with us. If they get tight, we can easily steal another one in Boston and bring it back home for Game 7."
Of course, this scenario would be helped greatly if Boston seemed like the kind of team that would be easily rattled or would start to panic in this situation. That doesn't fit the mold of a veteran team -- one that has played very well in the playoffs after a lackluster regular season. Instead, we're guessing the Magic probably wins Game 5, but in a must-have Game 6, the Celtics are likely to prevail. After all, only four teams in the "major" sports have ever come back from a 3-0 hole in nearly 300 series.
Then again, it's happened twice since 2004. Perhaps something about today's hyper-intense media cycle puts an added layer of pressure on teams. Or maybe the precise scouting work lets teams make better adjustments that help them turn around series in a way that didn't used to happen as often. Or, maybe it's just coincidence.
Whatever the reason, no, we're not picking Orlando in 7. But it wouldn't shock us to see the Magic come all the way back. And having two Boston teams choke away 3-0 leads in the same playoff year ... well, you can decide exactly how that would feel.
