Arms-conÂtrol enÂthuÂsiÂasts must be disÂapÂpointÂed. On ThursÂday afÂterÂnoon, PresÂiÂdent DonÂald Trump cut short his sumÂmit in HaÂnoi with North Korea's Kim Jong Un. "SomeÂtimes you have to walk," Trump exÂplained later at a news conÂferÂence.
He's right. Trump said Kim deÂmandÂed a full liftÂing of sancÂtions in exÂchange for only parÂtial deÂnuÂcleÂarÂiÂzaÂtion. It's an old tacÂtic for the North KoÂreans. They neÂgoÂtiÂate, pockÂet conÂcesÂsions, then fail to deÂlivÂer.
UnÂforÂtuÂnateÂly, the presÂiÂdent is wrong aÂbout anÂothÂer point he made at the news conÂferÂence: the prosÂpects for a deal with Kim. As Trump tells it, Kim would like for his gulag state to be prosÂperÂous like VietÂnam — anÂothÂer formÂer U.S. foe with a penÂchant for MarxÂism. "I've been tellÂing evÂerÂyÂbodÂy, they have treÂmenÂdous poÂtenÂtial," Trump said, reÂferÂring to North Korea.
They don't. It's hard to know what's going on inÂside Kim's head, but if he has an ounce of comÂmon sense he must know that he canÂnot both overÂsee a healÂthy marÂket ecÂonÂomy and reÂmain the warÂden of a prisÂon state.
This is not to say that auÂthorÂiÂtarÂiÂan states canÂnot beÂcome wealÂthiÂer; China and RusÂsia show they can. But the North KoÂreÂan state is a comÂbiÂnaÂtion of Josef StaÂlin's Soviet Union and George OrÂwell's "1984."
Start with the fact that slavÂerÂy reÂmains a key part of its ecÂonÂomy. MatÂthew Zweig, an anÂaÂlyst for the Foundation for Defense of DeÂmocÂraÂcies, esÂtiÂmates that one in 10 North KoÂreÂan workÂers are slaves, pressed into laÂbor in camps visÂiÂble in satÂelÂlite photos.
There are also apÂproxÂiÂmateÂly 100,000 North KoÂreans sent aÂbroad to work mainÂly as manÂuÂal laborers, whose earnÂings are taxed at near conÂfisÂcaÂtory rates. (Much of this is deÂtailed in a lawÂsuit filed by a North KoÂreÂan ship workÂer who worked 12-hour days at a shipÂyard in PoÂland in unÂsafe conÂdiÂtions with alÂmost all of his wages paid in taxÂes to PyongÂyang.) It's a scheme that proÂvides Kim's reÂgime with the hard curÂrenÂcy it needs to build nuÂclear weapons and the misÂsiles to deÂlivÂer them.
It should go withÂout sayÂing that this sysÂtem will nevÂer yield the kind of healÂthy ecÂonÂomy that Trump dreams of for North Korea. For North Korea to be prosÂperÂous, its citÂiÂzens canÂnot live in perÂpetuÂal terÂror and fear. The probÂlem for Kim is that, withÂout fear, his reÂgime would crumÂble.
For now, then, it doesn't look like an ecoÂnomÂic revÂoÂluÂtion is on the hoÂriÂzon. Trump's inÂstinct to try to neÂgoÂtiÂate a deal to at least defang this menÂace is not crazy. But his ofÂfer to make North Korea prosÂperÂous is foolÂish.
As he conÂtinues to deal with North Korea, Trump would do well to study RonÂald ReaÂgan's presiÂdenÂcy. Like Trump, ReaÂgan sought a deal with a dicÂtaÂtor. But ReaÂgan's legÂacy is not the arms-conÂtrol aÂgreeÂment he made with Soviet leadÂer Mikhail GorÂbaÂchev. It is the moÂral clarÂiÂty ReaÂgan brought to America's reÂlaÂtionÂship with the counÂtry he called an evil emÂpire — a viÂsion that helped to hasÂten its colÂlapse.
It's a modÂel Trump seems to be folÂlowÂing in VenÂeÂzueÂla, where he has a chance to help the VenÂeÂzueÂlan peoÂple usher out NicÂoÂlas Maduro, the Western Hemisphere's seÂcond-worst tyÂrant. Trump deÂcidÂed not to sign an aÂgreeÂment with Kim beÂcause "we just felt it wasn't apÂproÂpriÂate, and we reÂalÂly want to do it right," he said just beÂfore leavÂing HaÂnoi. If the presÂiÂdent is lookÂing for a forÂeign polÂicy legÂacy, his best chance is half a world away.