Three-plus years into the economic recovery, the explosive growth of Minnesota's small-capitalization companies is waning.
In 2010 and 2011, the bottom 50 companies on the Star Tribune 100 ranking of the state's largest public firms outpaced growth rates of the top 50 companies in sales, profits and market value.
The last year, amid the continued bull market, small-caps saw a 22 percent increase in market value, compared with a 17.4 percent rise for the entire Star Tribune 100.
But sales rose just 4 percent, profits declined 73 percent and employment dropped 2.4 percent at the small companies, underperforming the overall Star Tribune 100, where sales rose 4.8 percent, profits 3.5 percent and employment nearly 4 percent.
Market analysts recognize that smaller companies, which tend to be more volatile performers, dive early and deeper during a recession and rebound faster early in economic recoveries. And this four-year bull market, in which the broad market index is up more than 125 percent, including reinvested dividends, is starting to look like it needs a small-cap breather.
"Small-caps have performed well and now look expensive relative to large-company stocks," said Keith Tufte, chief investment officer of Adam Smith Advisors. "On a relative valuation basis, the price-to-earnings ratio, small-cap stocks are trading near a 30-year high relative to large-cap U.S. stocks. For this reason we are tilting our portfolios less toward small-cap stocks now than we normally do. Investors are still bullish … but this year they want to buy the more conservative and safe stocks."
Sales rose at 28 of the bottom 50 companies in 2012, compared with 38 last year.
Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management, said the investors in the rally are shifting from "smalls to the safety of larger-cap stocks as the market is perceived to get a little less hospitable."