Football Outsiders is a good web site. If you are a Vikings fan and clinging to hope for the 2013 season, that should worry you. Because the site crunched the numbers and determined the Vikings have less than a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Actually, it more than crunched them. It did this:
The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
The simulations say the Vikings will win 5.8 games, and they apparently don't care who is playing QB.
BUT THE SIMULATIONS BETTER THINK AGAIN.
