Helping her husband unpack his guitar for a gig at the Savage farmers' market, Martha Foster recounted how a few nights ago two men tried to break into their vehicles in their driveway in this quiet suburb 20 miles south of the Twin Cities.
As an educator, her top issue in the voting booth is typically school funding. Now she's thinking more about crime.
Kim Hallquist, a mother of two, lives a few miles away in Prior Lake and generally is apathetic about voting and frustrated with the two-party system. But she said she's been activated this year by a single issue: abortion rights.
"Everybody has their own voice and choices," said Hallquist. "But again, it comes down to choices."
Registrations by women voters have surged in key battleground states since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade this summer, and Minnesota Democrats point to recent abortion rights victories in New York and Kansas as evidence that women in the critical Twin Cities suburbs could turn out at the polls in huge numbers this fall.
But Republicans in the state are confident they're making inroads with suburban women over concerns about school lockdowns, rising crime and rampant inflation, which could give them an edge in a year that they believe largely will be a referendum on the Biden administration.
"Some election cycles we don't really see much conversation about policy issues, but we're already seeing a lot about abortion, a lot about crime and a lot about the economy," said University of Minnesota political science professor Kathryn Pearson. "I think the real question with respect to this election is: To what extent are partisan women on both sides motivated by these different issues?"
Minnesota's populous metro suburbs are politically, economically and racially diverse. Women there have been a critical part of Democratic coalitions over the last two election cycles, helping the party unseat incumbents in 2018 in two suburban congressional seats long held by Republicans. In 2020, Donald Trump's eroding support among women helped propel Joe Biden to a decisive victory in Minnesota.
In midterm elections, which historically see a major drop-off in turnout from presidential years, Pearson said both parties are less focused on persuading swing voters and more on turning out their base. Democrats say abortion is now a huge motivator for suburban women, many of whom had never lived in a world without Roe's protection.
In Kansas last month, voters overwhelmingly turned back an effort to strip abortion protections from the state constitution, largely thanks to a huge turnout in the suburbs. In New York's Hudson Valley region, Democrat Pat Ryan won a special election in what was seen as a bellwether race after he put abortion rights front-and-center in his campaign. His Republican opponent focused on taming inflation.
Top Democratic candidates in Minnesota are running on abortion access for the first time this year, embracing an issue that has more consistently been a motivator for the Republican base. Abortion rights groups say they've already knocked on nearly a quarter of a million doors in Minnesota.
"I have never before seen or observed or felt the kind of earthquake of momentum happening on this issue," said Tim Stanley, executive director of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, who has been campaigning on abortion rights for the last 25 years in Minnesota. "I've never seen candidates running straight into the abortion issue as loudly and as proudly as they are. I've never seen the volunteers and supporters coming out like they are."
Stanley said he doesn't mean to tell suburban women not to worry about the price of gas or crime. But when he talks about Minnesota's status as an island for abortion access in the region, "This issue has the ability to supersede all those other concerns."
As a physician who specializes in obstetrics and gynecology, two-term DFL state Rep. Kelly Morrison of Deephaven always has been comfortable talking about abortion. But she said it's notable how many women are bringing up the topic in her run for a new state Senate seat in the politically purple west-metro suburbs.
"It's remarkable how many people are opening with reproductive rights," Morrison said. "There is really some anger and some fear around this issue right now."
Democrats are the most motivated, but she said she's also heard from some Republicans and independents who are pro-abortion rights but overlooked the issue at the polls in the past because Roe was in place. "That calculation is different now," she said.
Republicans say the national conversation about abortion doesn't resonate as much in Minnesota, where the 1995 state Supreme Court decision in Doe v. Gomez established constitutional protections for abortion. Meanwhile, a Ramsey Count judge unexpectedly ruled in July to undo most of the state's regulations on abortion, including a parental notification requirement for patients under 18.
"For our voters, especially suburban moms, they're saying: 'Wait, my 12-year-old daughter can have an abortion and I'm not even going know about it?' " said Scott Fischbach, executive director of Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life. "That's a motivator."
With abortion access constitutionally protected and now expanded in Minnesota, top priorities for suburban women are schools, high grocery prices and personal safety, said Leslie Rosedahl, chair of Women LEAD, which promotes "electable, fiscally conservative women" for state and local office.
"Women are responsible for the majority of consumer spending in this country and are feeling the issues of rising costs more than anyone else," she said.
Despite gas prices trending downward, Vadnais Heights Mayor Heidi Gunderson, who is running as a Republican for an open state House seat, said the economy still is the top issue she hears about from women when she knocks on doors. Abortion comes up rarely, she said. If it does, those people cite it as the only issue they're voting on this cycle.
"It's the price of getting your kids back to school, the price of groceries, the price of gas. People want to talk about the kitchen table stuff," said Gunderson. "I can relate to them as a mom. I think we're all trying to figure out what life is like now."
Crime and the economy are top issues for Judy Volling, who lives in an apartment in Savage and has to "really scrape" to afford her $1,500 rent plus gas, groceries and other expenses. She's happy gas prices are falling, but it's still "hard to make ends meet."
Schools always are a major concern for Carly Kragthrope, a mother and educator who lives in Shakopee. She's frustrated that more funding hasn't been dedicated to schools, which have had to rely on property taxes.
But abortion access is top of mind for her this year, she said, and will factor into who she votes for in a way it never has before.
"There's so many issues, but reproductive rights is a hot-button issue right now," she said. "It's really scary."
