Star Tribune staff football picks, state tournament quarterfinals

Jim says: Remember 2014 when Lakeville North — a state championship-caliber team with a defense for the ages — was shockingly eliminated by Totino-Grace in the semifinals? Panthers' coach Brian Vossen remembers. He'll have his team ready.

Pick: Lakeville North 24, Totino-Grace 20

David says: Coach Jeff Ferguson and the Totino-Grace staff always bring something special to the postseason. A talented player in a new position. A key play. Well-prepared defense. Expect one, or a combination of those factors, to produce a victory.

Pick: Totino-Grace 20, Lakeville North 14

Jim says: This is not the Blaine team that started the season. RB Chase Harper and QB Connor Melton are difference-makers who bring big-play ability to the offense.

Pick: Blaine 27, Minnetonka 14

David says: This marks the first time in Dave Nelson's 15 seasons coaching Minnetonka that he goes up against Blaine, which he coached to four Prep Bowls from 1988-2001. Expect Minnetonka players to bring a little something extra.

Jim says: When Maple Grove gets out to a fast start, the Crimson can compete with anyone. It's one of only two teams to score in double figures on Eden Prairie all season. Maple Grove lost 28-15 after falling behind 14-0.

Pick: Eden Prairie 22, Maple Grove 12

David says: Maple Grove QB Brad Davison has convinced me. He is both skilled and unflappable enough to better the efforts of a fine Eden Prairie defense.

Pick: Maple Grove 14, Eden Prairie 10

Jim says: Champlin Park QB Chad Costello has been terrific in postseason relief of injured starter Bennett Otto. Costello is 24 of 34 for 309 yards and four touchdowns in the postseason. But is the Rebels' defense up to the task?

David says: Top seed Rosemount boasts a solid offensive line but a thin backfield. Contain run-first QB Cody Hogan — never an easy task — and No. 3 seed Champlin Park pulls the upset.

Pick: Champlin Park 24, Rosemount 14

Jim says: Andover's three-game postseason winning streak comes to an end here at the hands of a punishing Spring Lake Park rushing attack.

Pick: Spring Lake Park 30, Andover 16

David says: Spring Lake Park senior QB Zach Ojile is 22-0 as a starter. He's the program's career leader with 3,610 rushing yards. He won't be denied after missing this game with an injury last year.

Jim says: Great stat from Jon Weisbrod of the Owatonna People's Press: Since losing to Faribault on Sept. 16, Owatonna is 7-0 and has trailed for a total of just 12:41 of game time.

Pick: Owatonna 38, Apple Valley 27

David says: Apple Valley senior QB Noah Sanders can sling the ball. But he'll surprise the Huskies with an ability to run hard and well.

Pick: Apple Valley 30, Owatonna 21

Mahtomedi (10-0) vs. Mankato West (10-0) at Farmington, 6 p.m.

Pick: Mankato West 38, Mahtomedi 24

David says: Steady helpings of running backs Jalen Frye and T.J. Tumbleson tip the scale in Mahtomedi's favor.

Pick: Mahtomedi 35, Mankato West 31

Jim says: Alexandria lost by seven to St. Cloud Tech, which lost by 24 to St. Michael-Albertville, which lost 56-0 to Elk River last week. The Elks win this one by 87 points, right? Not quite, but I don't see Alex staying close to Elk River's juggernaut.

Pick: Elk River 48, Alexandria 16

Pick: Elk River 42, Alexandria 21

Jim says: Winona makes its first state tourney trip in 29 years. South St. Paul was a Prep Bowl finalist last year. Edge, Packers.

Pick: South St. Paul 28, Winona 14

David says: This "neutral site" is about 10 miles from South St. Paul. Unlikely the Packers drop what essentially is a home game.

Pick: South St. Paul 35, Winona 20

Pick: Marshall 41, Fridley 20

David says: Marshall RB Jefferson Lee V gashed Hutch for 143 yards rushing on 16 carries. That's 8.9 yards per touch.

Pick: Marshall 31, Fridley 23

Jim says: Benilde-SM's RB Ricky Floyd has 431 yards rushing in two playoff games.

Pick: Benilde-St. Margaret's 37, Cloquet 17

Pick: Benilde-St. Margaret's 27, Cloquet 14

Jim says: Orono is on four-game winning streak, but this is like a home game for Rocori.

Pick: Rocori 20, Orono 10

David says: Playing just four games this year, the Spartans' 6-9 WR Jarvis Thomas has 13 catches for 402 yards and threeTDs. Nice X-factor.

Pick: Orono 31, Rocori 28

Pick: St. Croix Lutheran 40, Belle Plaine 28

David says: Whether at QB or LB, senior Isaac Tietz makes the Crusaders go.

Pick: St. Croix Lutheran 35, Belle Plaine 20

Jim says: JWP hasn't experienced the type of athleticism North can bring.

Pick: North 32, JWP 22