Whomever set MLB's online odds clearly didn't consult Baseball Prospectus and its recently released PECOTA projections. Those numbers have the Twins improving from last year's 59-103 disaster to a near-.500 record.

The odds, though? They are not in the Twins' favor. A set that was recently released shows the local club as a 500-to-1 long shot to win the World Series. Those are the longest odds of any team — tied with San Diego and Milwaukee for that distinction.

More interestingly, the site offers odds on which manager will be fired first. Owing, I suppose, to a combination of the long odds for the Twins and a new management regime, Paul Molitor checks in as the second-most likely at 6-1 (tied with Bob Melvin of the A's and just behind Bryan Price of the Reds).

If the Twins finish closer to what Baseball Prospectus thinks than what the odds say, Molitor wouldn't be a very smart bet at all.

Read Michael Rand's blog at startribune.com/randball. michael.rand@startribune.com.