Whomever set the lines for this online odds site clearly didn’t consult Baseball Prospectus and its recently released PECOTA projections. Those numbers have the Twins improving from last year’s 59-103 disaster to a near-.500 record this season.
The odds, though? As they say, they do not appear to be in the Twins’ favor. A set of them that was recently released shows the local club as a 500 to 1 long shot to win the World Series.
Those are long odds (which, completely aside, makes me think of this great Kid Dakota song of the same name). They are, in fact, the longest odds — tied with San Diego and Milwaukee for that distinction.
Perhaps more interestingly, the site offers odds on which manager will be fired first. Owing I suppose to a combination of the long odds for the Twins in general and a new management regime, Paul Molitor checks in as the second-most likely at 6 to 1 (tied with Bob Melvin of the A’s and just behind Bryan Price of the Reds).
Honestly, it would surprise me if Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made that sort of move in-season. And if the Twins finish closer to what Baseball Prospectus thinks than what the odds say, it wouldn’t be a very smart bet at all.