Is the NFL becoming a pass-unhappy league?

Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell and Baker Mayfield were among the winning quarterbacks in Week 1, while Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert fell short.

September 15, 2023 at 10:51PM
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is 2-0 despite averaging just 181.5 yards passing. (Carlos Gonzalez, Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Here's a stat the NFL probably wants you pass-happy, fantasy football-loving new-schoolers to look away from after a Week-1-plus-Week-2-Thursday-nighter throwback to old-school football:

Twelve of the 16 teams that won Week 1 threw for fewer than 246 yards, including seven that threw for fewer than 175 yards. Week 2 opened with Jalen Hurts throwing for 193 yards to beat the Vikings 34-28 and raise his record to 2-0 while averaging 181.5 yards passing per game.

Meanwhile, back in Week 1 …

Atlanta's Desmond Ridder needed only 15 completions, 18 attempts and 115 yards to win his third NFL game by two touchdowns.

Cleveland's Deshaun Watson threw for 154 yards and a 67.3 passer rating and won by 21 over Cincinnati's Joe Burrow, the highest paid player in league history, who threw for 82 yards.

Washington's Sam Howell was sacked six times and won. Dallas' Dak Prescott completed 13 passes for 143 yards and won 40-0.

Green Bay's Jordan Love needed only 15 completions to throw for 245 yards, a league-high 123.2 passer rating and three touchdowns to beat the Bears in Chicago by 18 points for his first career victory after sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for three years.

Speaking of Rodgers, the most unfortunate and worst possible buzzkill that could have hit the NFL this season came on his fourth snap as a Jet on Monday night. Rodgers' season-ending — and hopefully-not-career-ending — torn Achilles gave way to Zach Wilson riding shotgun to victory behind New York's defense and special teams. Wilson completed only 14 passes for 140 yards in the Jets' overtime upset of Buffalo.

Speaking of the Bills, Josh Allen brain-burped his way through three interceptions to join fellow superstars Burrow, Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes and the Chargers' Justin Herbert to go a combined 0-4, the opposite of the B-List foursome of Ridder, Howell, Love and Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield, who went 4-0.

Only five passers topped 300 yards, including Miami's Tua Tagovailoa, who had 466 in outplaying Herbert in a 36-34 road victory. Two of the 300-yard passers, including Kirk Cousins, lost to quarterbacks who threw for fewer than 175 yards. Throw in Week 2 and Kirk has thrown for 698 yards and is 0-2 against guys who have thrown for 366.

What the heck is going on?

Well, for starters, it's only one week, so it's probably just an aberration. Hopefully the NFL doesn't declare a national state of emergency and outlaw good defense entirely — something that's been trending in that direction since 1978 — as we head into Week 2 averaging a mere 194.6 yards passing per team.

The league average in 1977 was 141.9, according to Pro Football Reference. That was the last year the NFL could stomach Pittsburgh's Steel Curtain being a wet blanket to offensive evolution. Sweeping changes were made to open up the passing game and create more points ahead of the 1978 season. Pittsburgh, which had won two Super Bowls with its defense leading the way prior to 1978, simply won the next two with its offense out front.

The league average topped 200 yards in 1981 (204.4). Since then, only four seasons — 1982 (199.4), 1990 (194.8), 1991 (199.1) and 1992 (187.6) — have fallen below 200.

The record high came in 2015 when teams averaged 243.8. The average has fallen the past three years from 240.2 in 2020 to 228.3 in 2021 to 218.5 last season.

Some have suggested this is the result of defensive coordinators who are dedicated to taking away the deep ball. According to ESPN, there were only 3,416 balls thrown at least 15 yards downfield during the 2022 season, the fewest in any season since 2006. Week 1 of this season saw those deep balls drop to 9.2% of all passes, down from 10.4% in Week 1 a year ago.

As a result, the average yards per attempt in Week 1 was only 6.25 yards, the lowest in a Week 1 since 1996, according to ESPN.

Here's another stat the pass-happy NFL probably doesn't want to promote:

Mayfield averaged 5.09 yards per attempt and beat a 150-yard receiver (Justin Jefferson) and a 300-yard passer (Cousins) in their building in Week 1. Four days later, the Eagles ran 48 times for 259 yards to waste another 150-yard day for Jefferson and another 300-yard day for Cousins.

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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