More Wells Fargo job cuts almost certain, analysts say

Wells Fargo & Co. is poised to spread pain to the rank and file.

That's the view from analysts, who say the bank's leadership almost certainly must announce more aggressive cost-cutting targets Thursday when hosting an annual investor briefing. After a bogus-account scandal spooked new clients and crimped profitability, Wells Fargo will probably eliminate more branches and dismiss staff, analysts say. The question is how deep the cuts will go.

Credit Suisse analysts predict Chief Executive Tim Sloan will add $1.5 billion to his January pledge to eliminate $2 billion of expenses. At Jefferies Group, Barclays and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., analysts call for the target to rise by $1 billion.

"An extra $1 billion could help," Jefferies' Ken Usdin told clients in a note Monday. "The expected upsizing of the two-year, $2 billion cost-savings effort is the most anticipated part."

Sloan and his colleagues have repeatedly said they aren't abandoning a key profitability target they declared half a decade ago, an efficiency ratio of 55 percent to 59 percent, even as the scandal fuels legal costs and makes it harder to lure new clients. In January, executives laid out a cost-cutting plan that included closing 400 branches through 2018.

But in the first quarter, the efficiency ratio swung further in the wrong direction, rising to 62.7 percent — the worst since at least the 2008 financial crisis. The figure compares noninterest expense to net income.

"I want to make it very clear that operating at this level is not acceptable," Sloan said on an April 13 conference call with analysts. "We are committed to improving."

The bank has spent at least $445 million on fines, remediation, consultants and civil litigation. On Saturday, its top shareholder, billionaire Warren Buffett, said managers were "totally wrong" in not acting faster to halt abuses.

Finding expense cuts to appease investors over the next 18 months will be difficult without also undermining revenue, analysts said. One area set for trimming is Wells Fargo's network of 6,000 retail locations, according to Usdin. He said Wells Fargo has pared branches far less than rivals since 2011 — closing 4 percent while the average competitor shut 12 percent.

For the bank to hit its target efficiency range, the retail unit will have to trim $600 million to $800 million, according to Guggenheim Securities analyst Eric Wasserstrom.