The Star Tribune, MPR News and KARE 11 interviewed 800 Minnesota likely voters between Sept. 21 and Sept. 23. Findings from questions about the 2020 U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, Sen. Tina Smith's job approval and the U.S. Supreme Court are below. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Scroll down the page for details about how the poll was conducted, a map of the Minnesota regions used in this poll and the demographics of the 800 respondents.

If the 2020 U.S. Senate election were held today, would you vote for Tina Smith, the Democrat, or Jason Lewis, the Republican?

Tina
Smith
Jason
Lewis
Undecided
49% 41% 10%
  Tina
Smith
Jason
Lewis
Undecided
Hennepin/ Ramsey 68% 22% 10%
Rest of metro 41 47 12
Southern Minn. 44 46 10
Northern Minn. 35 57 8
Men 45 47 8
Women 53 35 12
DFL/ Democrat 83 9 8
Republican 15 78 7
Independent/ other 46 39 15
18-34 67 21 12
35-49 42 42 16
50-64 47 47 6
65+ 48 47 5
No college degree 42 48 10
College graduate 56 34 10
Biden voters 93 1 6
Trump voters 5 92 3

Do you approve or disapprove of Tina Smith’s job performance as U.S. senator?

Approve Disapprove Not sure
51% 32% 17%
  Approve Disapprove Not
sure
Hennepin/ Ramsey 68% 17% 15%
Rest of metro 42 40 18
Southern Minn. 47 37  16
Northern Minn. 38 39 23
Men 48 37 15
Women 54 27 19
DFL/ Democrat 79 8 13
Republican 22 57 21
Independent/ other 47 33 20
18-34 62 17 21
35-49 45 35 20
50-64 48 35 17
65+ 52 37 11
No college degree 42 38 20
College graduate 60 26 14
Biden voters 89 - 11
Trump voters 15 69 16

Do you feel the U.S. Senate should or should not vote on the confirmation of President Trump’s U.S. Supreme Court nominee before the November election?

Should Should not Not sure
39% 55% 6%
  Should Should not Not sure
Hennepin/ Ramsey 21% 73% 6%
Rest of metro 43 47 10
Southern Minn. 48 48 4
Northern Minn. 55 42 3
Men 46 49 5
Women 34 59 7
DFL/ Democrat 9 87 4
Republican 76 18 6
Independent/ other 37 54 9
18-34 21 69 10
35-49 40 53 7
50-64 46 50 4
65+ 44 51 5
No college degree 47 47 6
College graduate 31 62 7
Biden voters 1 95 4
Trump voters 89 8 3

About the poll

The findings of this Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll are based on live interviews conducted Sept. 21 to Sept. 23 with 800 Minnesota voters who indicated they were “likely to vote” in the November general election. The poll was conducted for the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News and KARE 11 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy Inc.
The sample for this survey was drawn from a Mason-Dixon database that includes approximately 2.2 million registered Minnesota voters who are matched with a telephone number – either a land line, a cell phone or both. A random sample of 100,000 voters from unique households with unique phones was drawn from this database for use in calling on this poll.
Those interviewed were randomly selected by computer from this phone-matched Minnesota voter registration file with quotas assigned to generally reflect the state’s voter turnout distribution by county. For example, Hennepin County and Ramsey County combined accounted for 32.3% of the statewide vote in the 2016 presidential election, and accordingly 32.5% of the survey interviews were completed there. The interviews were conducted via land line (28%) and cellphone (72%).
The margin of sampling error for this sample of 800 likely voters, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.
The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents is 38% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 28% independents or other.
Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion surveys, such as nonresponse, question wording or context effects. In addition, news events may have affected opinions during the period the poll was taken.
The demographic profile of this poll of likely voters is an accurate reflection of their respective voter populations. This determination is based on more than 100 statewide polls conducted by Mason-Dixon in Minnesota over the past 32 years – a period that spans eight presidential election cycles that began in 1988.
Readers can e-mail questions to matt.delong@startribune.com.

Demographic breakdown of this polling sample

PARTY
DFL/ Democrat 307 (38%)
Republican 271 (34%)
Independent/ other 222 (28%)
AGE
18-34 146 (18%)
35-49 229 (29%)
50-64 234 (29%)
65+ 184 (23%)
Refused 7 (1%)
RACE
White/ Caucasian 700 (87%)
Black/ African American 41 (5%)
Hispanic/ Latino 23 (3%)
Asian/ Pacific Islander 9 (1%)
Other 20 (3%)
Refused 7 (1%)
GENDER ID
Men 384 (48%)
Women 414 (52%)
Other 2 (<1%)
REGION
Hennepin/ Ramsey 260 (33%)
Rest of metro 215 (27%)
Southern Minnesota 155 (19%)
Northern Minnesota 170 (21%)
EDUCATION
High school
or less
168 (21%)
Some college/
Vocational
241 (30%)
College graduate 252 (31%)
Graduate degree 127 (16%)
Refused 12 (2%)
INTERVIEW
Land-line 227 (28%)
Cell Phone 573 (72%)