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In the wake of the Annunciation Church shooting, Minnesotans are grieving again. Rob Doar’s recent commentary rightly notes that most perpetrators are in crisis, leak their plans in advance, and are motivated by the promise of infamy. We agree. Our research at the Violence Prevention Project Research Center has consistently documented these patterns, and we have long called for better mental health care, more community training to recognize and respond to warning signs, and a media environment that starves shooters of notoriety.
We’ve worked together in the past and sincerely hope to do so again in the future. That’s why we want to be clear: Doar’s piece leaves out half the story. In citing our work to dismiss gun restrictions, he selectively highlights some findings while overlooking others.
Chapter 8 of our book, "The Violence Project: How to Stop a Mass Shooting Epidemic" — winner of a Minnesota Book Award — is titled “Opportunity” and is dedicated to the role of firearms in shaping these tragedies. Chapter 9 then outlines a “Swiss cheese” model: Multiple, imperfect layers of prevention that, together, reduce risk. Mental health, crisis intervention, school design and media responsibility are all slices of that cheese. So is gun policy. Ignoring it leaves a gaping hole.
Why firearms matter
Critics often point to the 1994 federal Assault Weapons Ban and claim it “didn’t work.” That misreads the evidence. The ban was short-lived and riddled with loopholes, but it reduced the use of assault weapons in crime. And when it expired, the deadliest attacks in U.S. history — from Sandy Hook to Uvalde to Las Vegas — followed, all carried out with these weapons.
In our database of more than 200 mass shootings, those involving assault-style rifles killed and injured far more people than those using other guns. Our study in JAMA Network Open found that shootings with semi-automatic rifles nearly doubled fatalities compared with handguns. Other analyses suggest that had the federal ban remained in place, the toll of the past two decades might have been smaller.
Even short of a full ban, policies that address weapon lethality save lives. Limiting magazine capacity to 10 rounds forces shooters to reload more often, creating critical moments for escape or intervention. In Minneapolis, the shooter fired 116 rounds from a 5.56 mm rifle in under four minutes. At Tucson in 2011, bystanders tackled the gunman only because he stopped to reload a 33-round magazine. High-capacity magazines are a common thread in the nation’s deadliest attacks — and they are not necessary for self-defense or hunting.
