The stock market has continued to reach new highs, troubled only fleetingly by rising interest rates, sluggish corporate earnings and new and uncomfortable political realities.
Monetary policy is tightening, government spending is expected to expand substantially, and, as the U.S. presidential election and the vote in Britain to leave the European Union show, trade relations and other ties among nations may be fraying. How those trends progress should go a long way to determining the performance of stocks and bonds as the year moves along.
These aren't the only issues for investors to contend with, either. Economic indicators have perked up but the earnings outlook remains subdued, stock valuations remain high and bond yields are low but rising. Under these circumstances, many investment advisers recommend taking only minimal, reasonably priced risks.
"I'm hard pressed to locate any investment where you can make a strong argument that it's undervalued," said Joe Davis, global chief economist at Vanguard. "Just as the economic environment seems to be improving, the investment environment is more challenging. Investors have more risk in their portfolios than at any time since 1999."
Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at the GMO investment firm, likewise finds "plenty of things to worry about."
The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is trading at about 26 times the earnings that the constituent companies reported in the previous year, higher than at almost any time in history. One reason investors are willing to pay so much is that they see even less value in other assets.
"The rest of the world looks scarier than the U.S.," Inker said. "Who would want to touch Europe? Who would want to touch emerging" markets? As scary as they may appear, he recommends investing in emerging stock markets as the best of a series of difficult choices.
However, David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, finds solid prospects in U.S. stocks this year. He favors sectors most sensitive to rising growth, such as financial services, technology and consumer discretionary stocks.