Local money pros see Dow's close above 20,000 as a confidence boost

Even professionals who say the Dow Jones industrial average isn't the best gauge of the overall market still are marveling at its latest milestone.

They point to its close over the 20,000 mark Wednesday as a move through a psychological barrier that could improve confidence in the market.

Craig Johnson, senior technical research analyst for Piper Jaffray, has charted the significant milestones reached by the Dow going back to when the average crossed 1,000 in 1972.

"Nobody asks you 'how did the S&P do today?' " Johnson said. The milestone is "a gauge for sentiment more than anything else."

To Johnson, though, these milestone numbers serve as convenient measuring marks of progress.

And Piper Jaffray has found that when the Dow breaks through a 1,000-point marker, 52 weeks later the market is higher — with the S&P 500 index up 78 percent of the time with an 11.52 percent return and the Dow higher 72 percent of the time with a 9.6 percent return.

"I would suspect that we will continue to push ahead over the next year," Johnson said.

Still, some market observers say the confidence achieved by breaking the 20,000 mark could contribute to a cycle in which consumers spend more, businesses invest in capital improvements and the market continues to roll higher.

The move from 19,023.87 on Nov. 22 to 20,068.51 Wednesday was the second-fastest 1,000-point gain in the Dow since the early 1970s. The higher it goes, the easier it is to gain 1,000 points.

"It blows me away," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Fargo Asset Management. "I can remember when people wondered if we would ever get through Dow 1,000. It's amazing — we are up 20-fold in my career."

Beth Lilly, a portfolio manager for Gabelli Funds, remembers when the Dow crossed 10,000. "There was a lot of hype in the market, there was a lot of optimism and valuations were stretched," she said.

The dot.com bubble burst shortly after the 10,000 mark, but Lilly thinks conditions are different today, helped by stronger fundamental underpinnings. She also thinks the milestone can provide a psychological boost.

"As people become more optimistic and consumers can spend more money, then business becomes more optimistic and they are more willing to hire and engage in capital spending," Lilly said. "It could kind of be self-fulfilling."

Carol Schleif, deputy chief investment officer for Wells Fargo's wealth management group Abbot Downing, said the milestone could boost already improving confidence as the economy has been strengthening since the summer with better corporate earnings, improving consumer sentiment and postelection optimism.

She noted that the rise since the election has come with little volatility, which might be worth watching.

"If the market continues to march up and leaves 20,000 solidly in the rearview mirror, we wouldn't be surprised to see hiccups within that," Schleif said. "But there is a nice floor underneath that 20,000 mark."

Includes reporting by the New York Times.