The votes are in, and the wait has begun. In a little over three weeks, Glen Perkins will know if he must regard his friend and former teammate Joe Mauer in a whole new light.
"It's still hard to wrap my mind around — Joe's a Hall of Famer. He's going to Cooperstown," Perkins said. "It's just weird when you're peers with a guy. You never think of him like that."
It's possible that Perkins will get a year or two's reprieve in this mind-bending exercise, that Mauer's name won't be checked on 75% of the 400 or so ballots — which must be mailed in and postmarked before the start of the new year — cast by members of the Baseball Writers Association of America. But if Mauer isn't among the elected when the results are announced on Jan. 23, he is almost certain to reach that benchmark in 2025 or '26.
Mauer, after all, has received the support of 79 voters among the 96 who have made their ballots public though 4 p.m. Saturday, according to the online Hall of Fame tracker compiled each winter for the past decade by Ryan Thibodaux. That's 82.3% of the ballots, an indication that the six-time All-Star is receiving broad backing by the BBWAA electorate — second-most of any of the 26 candidates on the ballot, behind only third baseman Adrián Beltré, who has received 97.9% of available votes.
With roughly three-fourths of the ballots still unknown, it's obviously possible that Mauer will fall short of the 75% standard. Last year, through 201 public ballots tracked by Thibodaux, Todd Helton received 78.6% at 158 votes; he finished at 72.2%, getting 281 of 389, 11 votes short of induction.
"The early numbers, for pretty much every candidate, they almost never hold. Everybody's final percentage drops," Thibodaux said Friday, because voters who decline to reveal their ballots tend to vote for fewer candidates. "That drop can be kind of slight, 1 or 2 percent, or we've seen them upwards of 10 percent."
History says it's an especially difficult path for catchers. Only two — Johnny Bench and Iván Rodriguez — have ever been elected on the first ballot.
Rodriguez is a reasonable parallel to the Twins star, Thibodaux said.