If Russia really tried to throw the U.S. election to Donald Trump, what then? Did the hacking violate international law? And if so, what can the U.S. do to retaliate? The short answer is that trying to change the outcome of another country's election does violate a well-recognized principle of international law, and the U.S. would be legally justified in taking "proportionate countermeasures." But, in a painful twist, the best precedent comes from a 1986 case the U.S. lost and never accepted.
There are essentially two ways to establish a principle of international law: by treaty or by custom, and there's no explicit treaty prohibiting nations from intervening in one another's affairs. That makes nonintervention a principle of customary international law, albeit a custom sometimes honored more in the breach.
The idea that states should leave one another alone certainly makes sense. On some level the whole theory of national sovereignty — the cornerstone of modern international law — depends on that idea.
The founding fathers' favorite international law theorist, Emmerich de Vattel, put it this way in 1758: "It clearly follows from the liberty and independence of nations that each has the right to govern itself as it thinks proper, and that no one of them has the least right to interfere in the government of another."
At a minimum, nonintervention means not using coercive force in another country. Russia, of course, didn't use force to intervene in the U.S. election, the way it did in Crimea, for example.
But the International Court of Justice has interpreted the principle of nonintervention to extend beyond force. Its most notable discussion of the issue came in the 1986 case of Nicaragua v. U.S. There, in Paragraph 205 of the judgment, the court said it was unlawful for a state to intervene in a way "bearing on matters in which each State is permitted, by the principle of State sovereignty, to decide freely" — and that included "the choice of a political, economic, social and cultural system, and the formulation of foreign policy."
In a 2005 case, the international court said expressly that the principle as described in the Nicaragua case prohibits a state "to intervene, directly or indirectly, with or without armed force, in support of the internal opposition within a State."
That's pretty close to what Russia is alleged to have done: intervene without armed force in support of one party in a U.S. election.