It's difficult — almost next to impossible — to predict the outcome of the Kentucky Derby, the jewel in thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown. There are many variables. Jockeys and their horses are under pressure to perform in a marquee race, the field of runners is the largest they will ever see, track conditions vary and are uncertain until race day, and it's the first time any of the 3-year-old horses have run in a mile-and-a-quarter competition.
But Bob Baffert, one of the sport's most prominent trainers, has been a consistent Derby winner for decades. I interviewed him in 1996 after one of his horses, Cavonnier, almost won the race before being nosed out at the finish line by Grindstone, a horse that had competed in only five races before that and had never won a Grade I stakes race. That was Baffert's first Derby, and the loss crushed him briefly.
"Will we ever get back here again?" Baffert told me. "I'll never suffer a beat like this again in my life."
Baffert won the Derby the next year with Silver Charm and the year after that with Real Quiet. His horse won again in 2002. He came close in subsequent years and then won the Triple Crown in 2015 and 2018, with American Pharoah and Justify. Last year, his horse, Authentic, won. Another Baffert thoroughbred, Medina Spirit, won a $1.8 million victory on May 1.
Medina Spirit failed a drug test after the race, and he may be disqualified. Officials at Churchill Downs, the legendary track in Louisville, Ky., where the Derby has been run for nearly 150 years, have temporarily suspended Baffert from entering horses there. An investigation is underway. If it's rigorous, it will lead to reform of a troubled and often tawdry sport, where gambling, horse breeding, drug abuse, wealth, animal abuse and glamour intersect.
"These are pretty serious accusations here, but we're going to get to the bottom of it and find out. We know we didn't do it," Baffert told reporters. He called the test results an "injustice to the horse."
Yeah, well, it's an injustice to a lot of things, including common sense.
Elite, Hall of Fame trainers such as Baffert monitor their horses closely. It boggles the imagination that anything gets into a thoroughbred's bloodstream without its trainer knowing — particularly before a main event like the Derby. A drug called betamethasone was coursing through Medina Spirit's system in abundant amounts, officials discovered. The drug is used to reduce pain and swelling in a horse's joints, and it has to be injected. Horses have hooves and can't hold needles themselves.