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Hoping to land a low air fare? Experts say good times may soon end

October 6, 2009 at 2:10AM
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The great airline sale of 2009 may be ending.

Air fares, which had declined steadily throughout this year, are beginning to show signs of stabilizing. For travelers, that means the strategy of waiting to book so prices can drop even more has probably run its course.

Fares in general are still much lower than they were last year -- Travelocity reported that fall airfares fell 14 percent compared with fall 2008. That's not as sweet as the summer months, however, when fares were down 18 percent.

Genevieve Shaw Brown, Travelocity's senior editor, checked prices for travel for the period from Labor Day to the weekend before Thanksgiving. When she checked on July 15, fares during that period were running 15.3 percent lower than a year ago. By Sept. 15, they were down only 14 percent.

"That suggests to me that airfares are stabilizing," she said.

The good news for travelers is that airlines are still running sales. In fact, says Tom Parsons, CEO of discount travel site Bestfares.com, they seem more widespread this year.

"It's like every other day has an airfare sale from someone," he said.

But Southwest, for example, isn't discounting as deeply as it used to. Parsons said airfares that once sold for $99 each way are now going for $149 each way. Still, Southwest is running its current sale through Feb. 11 (much further out than many airfare sales) although tickets must be purchased by Oct. 15.

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Meanwhile, low-cost carriers have spread around the country to the point that they compete as much with each other as they do with big carriers like Delta and American. Parsons said that it looks as if JetBlue has been trying with limited success to charge $159 or more each way between the East Coast and West Coast -- a bread-and-butter route for the carrier.

"They're trying like the dickens to get it there, but because of Virgin and some other competitors, they've been forced to bring it back down again," Parsons said.

A check on Monday showed JetBlue fares between New York and San Francisco for early November running between $109 and $174 each way.

None of this means the large airlines are out of financial trouble. They've been using sales to fill seats. But they're still waiting for revenue to get better, and business travel will need to pick up for that to happen.

Parsons noted that many of the hub-and-spoke airlines have dropped the usual requirement for a Saturday-night stay on sale fares. In the past, that was a way to keep business travelers, who generally want to be home for the weekend, from using fare sales aimed at price-conscious leisure travelers.

about the writer

about the writer

JOSHUA FREED, A ssociated Press

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