Grammys 2026: Who will win, who should win and the Bad Bunny of it all

A year after Beyoncé took home a long-overdue award for album of the year, music’s royalty will gather on Feb. 1 at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles for the 68th Grammy Awards.

Kendrick Lamar leads the field with nine nominations, followed by Lady Gaga and the producers Cirkut and Jack Antonoff, each of whom have seven, and Bad Bunny, Sabrina Carpenter, Leon Thomas and the recording engineer Serban Ghenea, each of whom has six. The telecast, set to air live on CBS at 7 p.m., will be hosted by Trevor Noah (for what he says is the final time) and include performances by Carpenter, Thomas, Clipse, Pharrell Williams, Addison Rae, Alex Warren and Olivia Dean.

Here are the predictions for how the night will go down across 13 categories:

Bad Bunny, “Debí Tirar Más Fotos”

Justin Bieber, “Swag”

Sabrina Carpenter, “Man’s Best Friend”

Clipse, “Let God Sort Em Out”

Kendrick Lamar, “GNX”

Leon Thomas, “Mutt”

Tyler, the Creator, “Chromakopia”

Grammys’ top category amounts to a three-way race between Kendrick Lamar, Lady Gaga and Bad Bunny, none of whom has ever won album of the year. Lamar and Gaga both have been nominated four previous times, which means either could benefit from the kind of “it’s their turn” energy. A win for Bad Bunny would mark the first time a Spanish-language LP took album of the year.

Will win: Kendrick Lamar, “GNX”

Bad Bunny, “DTMF”

Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”

Doechii, “Anxiety”

Billie Eilish, “Wildflower”

Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”

Chappell Roan, “The Subway”

Rosé and Bruno Mars, “Apt.”

Among the nominees, Bruno Mars owns this category: If he and Rosé win with “Apt.” — the first song by a K-pop act to be nominated for record of the year — he’ll become the only artist with four record trophies to his name. (Right now he and Paul Simon each have three.) Yet with “Luther,” Lamar and SZA have precisely the kind of intergenerational hit that Grammy voters love.

Will win: Kendrick Lamar with SZA, “Luther”

Should win: Kendrick Lamar with SZA, “Luther”

“Anxiety,” written by Doechii (performed by Doechii)

“Apt.,” written by Amy Allen, Brody Brown, Rogét Chayahed, Cirkut, Omer Fedi, Philip Lawrence, Bruno Mars, Rosé and Theron Thomas (performed by Rosé and Bruno Mars)

“DTMF,” written by Bad Bunny, Marco Daniel Borrero, Scott Dittrich, Benjamin Falik, Hugo René Sención Sanabria, Tyler Spry and Roberto José Rosado Torres (performed by Bad Bunny)

“Golden,” written by Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick (performed by Huntr/x)

“Luther,” written by Jack Antonoff, Roshwita Larisha Bacha, Matthew Bernard, Ink, Scott Bridgeway, Sam Dew, Kendrick Lamar, Sounwave, SZA and Kamasi Washington (performed by Kendrick Lamar with SZA)

“Wildflower,” written by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (performed by Billie Eilish)

“Golden,” the chart-topping K-pop banger from Netflix’s animated “KPop Demon Hunters,” which just won a Golden Globe and is nominated for original song at March’s Academy Awards, is a favorite. Don’t count out Eilish or Mars, though — both are two-time victors in a category nobody’s ever won three times.

Will win: “Golden”

Should win: “Golden”

Olivia Dean

The Marías

Addison Rae

Sombr

Leon Thomas

Alex Warren

Only Leon Thomas has a second nod in one of the four big categories, which tells you something about the strength of his support among voters. Yet Thomas faces stiff competition from English soul singer Olivia Dean. A fun fact: Nine of the last 10 winners in best new artist have been women.

Will win: Olivia Dean

Should win: Addison Rae

Justin Bieber, “Swag”

Sabrina Carpenter, “Man’s Best Friend”

Lady Gaga, “Mayhem”

Teddy Swims, “I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy (Part 2)”

In the last decade, only two LPs — Ed Sheeran’s “÷” and Ariana Grande’s “Sweetener” — have won this award without also being nominated for album of the year. So figure that Miley Cyrus and Teddy Swims are both long shots. Among the remaining nominees, “Mayhem” feels likeliest to win, though it’s worth pointing out that Carpenter could become the first artist to carry pop vocal album twice in a row.

Will win: Lady Gaga, “Mayhem”

Should win: Lady Gaga, “Mayhem”

GloRilla, “Glorious”

JID, “God Does Like Ugly”

Kendrick Lamar, “GNX”

Tyler, the Creator, “Chromakopia”

Lamar has lost this award exactly one time — to Macklemore & Ryan Lewis. The fact that two of the other nominated LPs — Clipse’s “Let God Sort Em Out” and Tyler, the Creator’s “Chromakopia” — made it into album of the year suggests the race is probably as tight as it’s ever been.

Should win: Kendrick Lamar, “GNX”

Kelsea Ballerini, “Patterns”

Tyler Childers, “Snipe Hunter”

Eric Church, “Evangeline vs. the Machine”

Jelly Roll, “Beautifully Broken”

After Beyoncé won the country album prize last year, the academy split that award into two: one Grammy for contemporary country album, another for traditional country album. (The academy insists its decision had nothing to do with complaints from Nashville types about Beyoncé’s win.) This is the 11th nomination for Eric Church, who’s never won a Grammy.

Will win: Eric Church, “Evangeline vs. the Machine”

Should win: Eric Church, “Evangeline vs. the Machine”

Charley Crockett, “Dollar a Day”

Lukas Nelson, “American Romance”

Margo Price, “Hard Headed Woman”

Zach Top, “Ain’t in It for My Health”

As Lukas Nelson said, nods for him and his dad, Willie, mean the Nelson family has a 40% chance of winning this category. So, too, does producer Shooter Jennings, who oversaw the recording of both Lukas’ “American Romance” and Charley Crockett’s “Dollar a Day.”

Will win: Willie Nelson, “Oh What a Beautiful World”

Should win: Zach Top, “Ain’t in It for My Health”

Linkin Park, “From Zero”

Turnstile, “Never Enough”

Yungblud, “Idols”

Only one woman or female-fronted act (in this case Paramore) has won rock album in the last quarter-century — not a great sign for Haim. This category comes down to the reunited Linkin Park versus Yungblud, who likely caught many an older voter’s eye with a show-stopping performance of Black Sabbath’s “Changes” at Ozzy Osbourne’s 2025 farewell concert.

Will win: Yungblud, “Idols”

Bon Iver, “Sable, Fable”

The Cure, “Songs of a Lost World”

Tyler, the Creator, “Don’t Tap the Glass”

Wet Leg, “Moisturizer”

Hayley Williams, “Ego Death at a Bachelorette Party”

Will win: Bon Iver, “Sable, Fable”

Should win: Bon Iver, “Sable, Fable”

Laila Biali, “Wintersongs”

Jennifer Hudson, “The Gift of Love”

Elton John & Brandi Carlile, “Who Believes in Angels?”

Laufey, “A Matter of Time”

Barbra Streisand, “The Secret of Life: Partners, Volume 2”

Would you believe Streisand has somehow lost this award 13 times? Standing in her way this year are Lady Gaga, who’s previously won it twice for both of her duet albums with the late Tony Bennett, and Laufey, who’s built a very devoted following as a kind of jazz-adjacent Taylor Swift.

Will win: Lady Gaga, “Harlequin”

Should win: Laufey, “A Matter of Time”

Edgar Barrera

Jessie Jo Dillon

Tobias Jesso Jr.

Laura Veltz

Amy Allen and Tobias Jesso Jr. both have previously won this award, which was handed out for the first time in 2023. Each had enough success last year to justify another win, though Barrera’s work with Karol G, Shakira and Juanes might inspire voters to recognize another worthy talent.

Should win: Edgar Barrera

Dan Auerbach

Cirkut

Dijon

Blake Mills

Cirkut’s seven total nominations — for his work on “Mayhem” and “Apt.” — make him the favorite. But Dijon’s creativity was the most exciting to behold as heard on Bieber’s “Swag” and his own album “Baby.”

Will win: Cirkut

Should win: Dijon

When: 7 pm. Feb. 1

Where: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles

How to watch: CBS, Hulu +, Live TV, YouTube TV and FuboTV