While there's plenty of disagreement about how the money should be used, almost everyone involved in public-policy debates agrees that it would be good if the federal government could collect more revenue without raising tax rates or reducing tax deductions or credits.
It should be indisputable that investment to make sure all citizens meet their tax obligations is desirable. Such investment would raise substantial revenue, as well as increase economic efficiency and help redress growing inequality: Our rough estimates suggest that at least 70% of the "tax gap" — defined as owed but uncollected taxes — comes from underpayment by the top 1%. This contributes to legitimate concerns that our tax system unfairly advantages the elite.
Our new analysis suggests that better-focused audits, raising Internal Revenue Service enforcement to previous peak levels, investing in information technology and broadening earnings reporting could raise more than $1 trillion in the next decade, primarily from very-high-income taxpayers. This well exceeds the revenue benefit of raising the top individual rate to 70%.
Some basic facts about tax compliance and enforcement:
• Extrapolating from the most recently available IRS information, the tax gap will be more than $7.5 trillion over a decade. You only need to close 15% of this gap to raise $1 trillion.
• Enforcement effort — as reflected in the share of gross collections reinvested in the IRS — has declined by approximately 35% over the past decade, and the decline has been disproportionate for corporations and millionaires: In 2011, more than 12% of individuals making $1 million or more annually were audited; last year, only 3.2% were. Audit revenue declines proportionally to the declining audit rates.
• At present, recipients of the earned-income tax credit — all of whom have incomes below $50,000 — are about as likely as those making $500,000 or more to be audited.
• Only 5% of taxpayers earning above $5 million are audited — even though IRS data demonstrates that an extra auditor-hour spent on their returns raises almost $5,000 on average.