Flight delays and cancellations to worsen in coming days

Even as the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history came closer to ending Monday, the impact on air travel at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP) and around the country could linger through the busy Thanksgiving travel period.

Airlines canceled thousands of flights nationally over the weekend as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a mandate to address air traffic controller staffing problems. Air traffic controllers are working without pay, putting strain on a system experts say is already understaffed and fragile.

When the government reopens, travelers will still likely face delays and cancellations through the Thanksgiving travel period as the FAA struggles to fully restore its operations, said Suzanne Morrow, CEO of InsureMyTrip, a travel insurance company.

“Even with the shutdown deal in place, the reality is that air-traffic staffing doesn’t reset overnight,” Morrow said. “Thanksgiving week could still see long lines, canceled flights, and stressed travelers.”

Last week, the FAA mandated carriers cut flights at 40 of the nation’s largest airports including MSP because of a shortage of air traffic controllers and other staff. A 4% reduction took effect Friday, which increases to 6% by Tuesday, 8% Thursday and 10% by Friday.

On Monday, 27 departing flights at MSP, about 5% of scheduled service, and 39 arriving flights, about 8%, were scrubbed, according to the flight-tracking website FlightAware. Another 65 flights were canceled across Tuesday and Wednesday.

Travelers may be affected even if they’re not on one of the scheduled canceled flights because of cascading logistical issues in the nation’s complex air travel system, compounded by staffing disruptions among air traffic controllers that can lead to delays.

Canceled flights also create an equipment issue for schedulers to tackle in real time, as an airplane that fails to complete a leg of its scheduled journey is not in the correct place to begin its work the following day.

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Sunday on CNN that air travel could reduce to “a trickle” by Thanksgiving unless the federal government reopens.

“We have ... people who want to get home for the holidays,” Duffy told CNN’s Jake Tapper during an interview. “Many of them are not going to be able to get on an airplane” because there are not going to be that many flights until the government reopens and air traffic returns to normal volumes.

As of Monday, Delta Air Lines, the dominant carrier at MSP, had cut its flight schedule through Wednesday to align with the FAA’s travel restrictions. Of major U.S. carriers, Delta led its peers on Saturday and Sunday in its rate of canceled flights, including 486 flights, or nearly 10% of the schedule nationally, cut on Sunday.

Minnesota-based Sun Country Airlines, the airport’s second-most-traveled airline, had informed its customers of upcoming cancellations through Nov. 17, according to an airline spokeswoman. She said the airline made no cuts to its charter business and its schedule had felt little impact so far.

According to a data analysis by trade group Airlines for America, which has called for the shutdown to end, there were 11 canceled flights between the beginning of the shutdown Oct. 1 and Oct. 30.

On Halloween weekend, though, canceled flights began to tick up, recording 274 between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2.

Staffing-related cancellations are only growing worse under the FAA directive, the data show. On Sunday, of the 1,704 cancellations across the nation, 819 were FAA-mandated reductions and another 885 were tied to delays from staffing problems.

The upheaval is apparently inspiring some travelers to postpone buying a plane ticket. Bookings for Thanksgiving air travel were showing the first signs of slowdown on Monday, according to data from Cirium, an aviation analytics company.

Kyle Potter, executive editor of the Thrifty Traveler website, said travelers should be prepared for headaches as the impacts of the government shutdown will last through at least the rest of the week and likely longer.

“We’re not out of the woods yet,” Potter said.

Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst at San Francisco-based Atmosphere Research Group, said having a Plan B is “a wise move.” That could include getting rebooked on another flight, having a backup reservation on another airline or plan to drive.

“If you don’t have to travel this week, and you have the option to postpone your trip, that might be best,” he said.

Other unpredictable factors, like poor weather, could worsen air travel. A snowstorm Monday led to lengthy delays at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport.

Air traffic controllers have been coming to work without the promise of a full paycheck since the government shut down Oct. 1. The system was already short on controllers, and the government shutdown has only exacerbated the issue, Duffy said.

On Sunday, 81 controllers across the country were off the job, the most since 61 didn’t show up for work on Oct. 31. In Atlanta, 18 of 22 controllers were absent Sunday.

“It’s hard to convince them to stay in the profession,” Duffy said.

The flying public was feeling the pinch Monday as more than 1,650 flights in the U.S. had been cut by 10 a.m. Another 3,000 had been delayed, according to FlightAware.

Thursday is likely to be the busiest day of the week at MSP with more than 40,000 travelers forecast to pass through screening, said Jeff Lea, a spokesman for the Metropolitan Airports Commission, which runs MSP.

But that could change drastically as airlines are actively canceling flights at “a progressively higher rate,” Lea said. He advised travelers to prepare for disruptions and check with airlines for flight information.

Five Democrats broke ranks with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Minnesota’s U.S. senators opposed the deal.