Despite environmental record, China embraces electric autos

SAN FRANCISCO - Lead poisoning, dying rivers, smoke-spewing coal power plants. Yes, China is to environmental conservation what Greece is to fiscal stability in the eurozone.

In fact, 20 of the planet's 30 most polluted cities can be found sooting the hillsides and darkening skies across the republic, according to the World Bank.

Yet China, despite its spotty track record, is about to take a big lead in at least one eco-friendly direction: The electric car. Even if it takes the heavy hand of a government not afraid to wield it to make it a reality.

The Boston Consulting Group, in a study to be released in July, projects that China will be the biggest market for electric vehicles by 2020, beating out Europe and relegating the United States to third place.

Despite all the hoopla surrounding the Chevrolet Volt, Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model S, only 2 percent of the new cars rolling out of North American showrooms in 2020 will be powered by electric motors, according to the study.

As for China, 5 million electric vehicles are expected to roam the vast country by the next decade, representing about 7 percent of its overall new-car market. That's up from a mere 2,000 sold last year, even though the government offered incentives worth up to an average of $9,000 per car.

If that didn't draw in the buyers, what will it take? China's leaders will just have to get more aggressive, says Marco Gerrits, co-author of the study.

"This makes the Chinese market a major wild card. EV manufacturers and suppliers should prepare for multiple volume and penetration scenarios."

That uncertainty pretty much goes for the rest of the world, as improving conventional engines join other emerging technologies to cloud the future of personal transportation.

Take the internal combustion engine. The Boston Consulting Group study shows that advances in the traditional engine have cut carbon dioxide emissions faster than expected, and carmakers should now be able to meet more-stringent U.S. 2020 emissions targets without having to rely as much on the costly build-out of newer technologies.

High-tech fuel systems and low-friction moving parts are squeezing the most out of gasoline-powered engines, making them a viable, fuel-friendly alternative to the more expensive electrics.

A certain segment of eco-conscious consumers with deep pockets still will be willing to pay the $6,000 or so premium to go electric, the consultants say, but to most, it doesn't make financial sense.

Until that equation changes, whether through easing battery costs, manufacturing efficiencies and/or government stimulus, the internal combustion engine will likely continue its reign.