Analysis: What would’ve happened if Daniel Jones stayed in Minnesota?

The MVP candidate, who has led the Colts to a 7-1 record while completing 71.2% of his passes with 13 TD throws, was with the Vikings late last season.

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The Minnesota Star Tribune
October 28, 2025 at 8:30PM
Daniel Jones, who was with the Vikings late last season, signed with the Indianapolis Colts during the offseason. He now is enjoying a breakout year as an MVP candidate. (Ayrton Breckenridge/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Below are the top five reasons Daniel Jones is suddenly Superman on the NFL’s best team in Indianapolis (7-1) and why he would be just another harried, beat-up quarterback on a disappointing 3-4 team had he chosen to stay in Minnesota.

(And, just so you know, none of the five reasons has anything to do with quarterback gurus and/or whisperers residing in Indy this fall or Minny last fall, when Jones, a New York Giants castoff, closed out his 2024 season under the practice squad tutelage of Vikings whispering guru Kevin O’Connell.)

Here are those reasons …

  1. Colts left tackle Bernhard Raimann, who has started all eight games, playing 499 of 499 snaps.
    1. Colts Canton-bound left guard Quenton Nelson, who has started all eight games, playing 470 snaps (94%).
      1. Colts center — and successor to Vikings center Ryan Kelly — Tanor Bortolini, who has started all eight games, playing 480 snaps (96%).
        1. Colts right guard — and successor to Vikings right guard Will Fries — Matt Goncalves, who has started seven games, playing 436 snaps (99% of those seven games).
          1. Colts right tackle Braden Smith, who has started all eight games, playing 471 snaps (94%).

            Total missed games: 1

            Total missed snaps: 138

            Now compare that with the mess Carson Wentz and J.J. McCarthy have dealt with and why they’ve been running for their livelihoods so far this season …

            1. Vikings left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who has missed two games while playing only 73% of the snaps (233) in the other five.
              1. Vikings left guard Donovan Jackson, who has missed two games while playing 99% of the snaps (277) in the other five.
                1. Kelly, who has missed four games while playing just 63% of the snaps (113) in the other three.
                  1. Fries, who has started all seven games, playing 97% of the snaps (410).
                    1. Right tackle Brian O’Neill, who has missed two games while playing only 75% of the snaps in the other five (231).

                      Total missed starts/games: 10

                      Total missed snaps: 867

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                      Jones wisely chose Indianapolis in free agency.

                      More money wouldn’t have kept him in Minnesota for the start of McCarthy’s rose-colored honeymoon when Anthony Richardson’s imminent divorce was beckoning from Indianapolis.

                      The added bonus for Jones has been landing behind the best offensive line in the AFC, if not the NFL. That wasn’t expected, as the Colts lost two starters to the Vikings and replaced them with a pair of mid-round picks from 2024 – fourth-rounder Bortolini, 23, and third-rounder Goncalves, 24.

                      That’s how you rebuild through the draft, folks.

                      Indy’s entire offensive line is under 30. Each player was drafted by the Colts. Raimann, 28, was a third-rounder in 2022. He was selected 77th overall, 11 spots after the Vikings drafted Brian Asamoah, now a former Viking who never started a game.

                      Quarterbacks and coaches are vital. No question. But even three-time Super Bowl champs Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid were blown out twice in the two Super Bowls they played with beat-up offensive lines missing key starters.

                      Colts coach Steve Steichen can’t call a bad play right now. Run, pass, doesn’t matter. The well-oiled offensive line, which has only three pre-snap penalties compared with nine for the Vikings, makes it happen for Jones or Jonathan Taylor, dueling NFL MVP front-runners.

                      The Colts lead the league in scoring at 33.8 points per game. The Vikings are 18th at 21.1. Jones has been sacked nine times in eight games. The Vikings have allowed 28 in seven games. Taylor has 12 of Indy’s 18 rushing touchdowns. The Vikings have five.

                      The Vikings are clunky and unbalanced offensively right now.

                      O’Connell seems to have lost what little faith he had in his running game. He’s calling runs just 38.3% of the time and is abandoning the run early. (See: incompletions on third-and-1 and third-and-2 early in the 37-10 beatdown by the Los Angeles Chargers.)

                      Meanwhile, Steichen is conducting a rhythmic thing of beauty and the Colts are about as balanced as an NFL team can get in today’s game.

                      Why?

                      The offensive line, not Jones.

                      Steichen is at 55-45 pass-to-run with Jones completing 71.2% of his passes with 13 touchdown throws, three interceptions, a 109.5 passer rating and his health still intact.

                      Sorry, Purple Nation, but if Jones had changed course this past spring and re-signed with the Vikings, he wouldn’t be doing any of this. He would be no better off than Wentz, who went 2-3 before a season-ending shoulder injury.

                      Why?

                      Because as much as we like to call this a quarterback’s league, it’s still the offensive line that sets the tone for a season’s success. Or lack thereof.

                      about the writer

                      about the writer

                      Mark Craig

                      Sports reporter

                      Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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