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Readers recently saw headlines from a recent study that ATV trails in Minnesota attracted enough sports tourism in three northern counties to generate $36 million in 2023. This claim seems almost too good to be true — because it is.
Before taking this seriously, it is important to understand the context under which the study was conducted.
ATV clubs have formed a strong lobby seeking permission from the Minnesota Legislature to build more ATV trails. Currently there are 8,828 miles in the Forest ATV Trail System Inventory and a total of 100,000 miles accessible to ATVs statewide, according to Minnesota Department of Natural Resources data. This includes all county mileage.
The ATV lobby is supported by “scientific” research that claims to demonstrate the financial bonanza ATV recreation brings to local communities. This research is typically sponsored or administered by the ATV clubs such as the economic impact study cited in a Minnesota Star Tribune article (“ATV riders spend millions, create jobs,” Jan. 12) and elsewhere.
This study collected rider frequency and expenditure data from riders on several selected trails and riding events, with an emphasis on online surveys. Problematically, rather than a random selection of trails from the trail network, five trail locations known for regular traffic were hand-picked by the clubs for trail counters (and these same vehicle count numbers were then applied to the rest of the trail system).
Surveys online were promoted through club social media targeting club members (not necessarily your everyday ATV rider) rather than having randomly selected ATV riders from the broader, defined rider population. It is not necessary to have a math or statistics degree to know that this gives new meaning to the word “bias.” It would be like polling people in line at Starbucks to find out their weekly coffee expenditure and then inputting that amount to represent every coffee drinker in the city.