Bill Leonard fears his consulting firm's customers would sidestep the governor's proposed sales tax, usually at his expense.
One major client has an office in New York state, where it could hire consultants free of sales tax. Customers in Minnesota could shift work from Leonard's business to their own departments.
"Their decision may be to do it internally, use employees versus using a consultant," said Leonard, whose firm, Charter Solutions, employs 70 people. "[Or] they could do the work outside of the state of Minnesota."
In either case, Leonard would lose business, and the state would get less from the tax.
Gov. Mark Dayton is seeking to collect $2.2 billion in new taxes on sales between companies, but many in the business community say he shouldn't expect to get that much. If approved, the sweeping new levy on business-to-business services will set off a mad dash of firms jockeying to avoid the tax, executives and economists say. Some companies will succeed, cutting into the actual return for Minnesota.
"The revenue will be lower," said Robert Eperjesy, director of state and local tax for Wipfli in Edina. "The governor just proposed a 5.5 to 6.15 percent tax increase to a lot of businesses, and that's going to affect spending."
The governor's office referred questions to the Department of Revenue, which agreed its projections do not take into account the ways business will try to avoid the tax. Other elements of Dayton's plan, however, would help stimulate growth that could replace the revenue lost when firms find ways to deflect the tax, said Susan Von Mosch, assistant commissioner of tax policy for the department.
"There are other provisions within the governor's budget, such as the lower corporate tax rate, that could also spur additional [economic] activity," Von Mosch said.