A capsule look at the AL Central in predicted order of finish

A capsule look at the AL Central in predicted order of finish

By JOE CHRISTENSEN • jchristensen@startribune.com

2011: 95-67 (46-24 after All-Star break)

Who's gone: Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Brad Penny, Wilson Betemit

Who's new: Prince Fielder, Octavio Dotel, Gerald Laird

Why they'll contend: They are clear favorites with some of the most talented players in the division: Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Avila, Jose Valverde and Fielder. After their bullpen depth cost them two games in the ALCS against Texas, they added Dotel as another setup specialist to go with Joaquin Benoit.

Why they won't: Defense could be an Achilles' heel. Cabrera hasn't played third base since 2008, and besides him, the Tigers would have below-average fielders at shortstop (Jhonny Peralta), first base (Fielder), left field (Delmon Young) and right field (Brennan Boesch). They have decent starting pitching depth in the minors, but their farm system is thin on position depth if injuries pile up.

Who's gone: Melky Cabrera, Jeff Francis

Who's new: Jonathan Sanchez, Jonathan Broxton, Jose Mijares

Why they'll contend: With Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar, they have a young, talented lineup, and they continue to make smart moves. They plucked Melky Cabrera off the scrap heap, watched him remake himself, then traded him for Jonathan Sanchez, a star from the Giants' 2010 World Series run. K.C. traded Cabrera because prospect Lorenzo Cain is ready to play center field.

Why they won't: Closer Joakim Soria was lost to a season-ending elbow injury, and catcher Salvador Perez (knee surgery) could miss three months. Unless highly touted lefty Mike Montgomery takes the next step, the starting staff will be counting on Sanchez and the soft-tossing Bruce Chen (12-8 with a 3.77 ERA last year).

2011: 63-99 (22-51 after All-Star break)

Who's new: Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll, Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis

Why they'll contend: As bad as last year was, the Twins are only two years removed from a 94-68, first-place finish. G.M. Terry Ryan didn't do anything flashy this offseason, but he addressed several needs with his free-agent signings. Denard Span, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are confident they'll be healthier. Carl Pavano has been consistent the past three years. Though neither is a sure thing, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano are capable of having a dominant five-month stretch.

Why they won't: There's talent here but too many injury concerns. And even if they prove healthy, the pitching staff -- both starting and relief -- would surprise a lot of people if it's anything better than mediocre.

2011: 79-83 (35-35 after All-Star break)

Who's gone: Ozzie Guillen (manager), Mark Buehrle, Sergio Santos, Carlos Quentin, Juan Pierre

Why they'll contend: Adam Dunn and righthander Jake Peavy both looked more like themselves this spring. Ventura has no managing experience, but he's a former star who exudes confidence without Guillen's verbal distractions. The starting pitching should still be solid with big lefthander Chris Sale moving into the rotation.

Why they won't: Youngsters such as center fielder Alejandro De Aza and right fielder Dayan Viciedo are waiting to make names for themselves. Gordon Beckham was supposed to be a star, but he has regressed the past two years. Paul Konerko had a great 2011 season, but now he's 36, playing for a team that can't seem to decide which direction to go.

2011: 80-82 (33-40 after All-Star break)

Who's gone: Fausto Carmona (restricted list), Jim Thome, Kosuke Fukodome

Who's new: Derek Lowe, Casey Kotchman