Building up an adequate nest egg for retirement is difficult. One reason it's so challenging is we face a lot of distractions along the way.
2022 was a year filled with such distractions.
First it was unexpected inflation, then a war, accompanied by sharply rising interest rates and painfully falling stock prices. Then, out of nowhere, along came some equally unexpected good news. A scientific breakthrough in nuclear fusion, the ultimate renewable energy, that reminded us of our seemingly infinite ability to innovate.
Overall, 2022 was a pretty miserable year for investors as a simultaneous selloff in stocks and bonds left many with double-digit losses. While your fourth-quarter 401(k) statement may reflect some improvement, it won't be enough to make up for the previous three quarters. Faced with unsettling losses, investors need to resist the urge to panic and focus on the end goal.
Down years for the U.S. stock market are actually not all that unusual. In fact, over the past 100 years, the market has averaged 2.5 down years per decade. During the drawdowns, the average loss was 14% in a calendar year, with the worst being the staggering decline of 47% in 1931.
Interestingly, in the year following a selloff, the market has bounced back on average 12%, with up years outnumbering a second consecutive down year 2 to 1.
What could drive the stock market higher in 2023?
Trillions of dollars of latent stimulus continues to support the U.S. economy despite stronger-than-expected inflation and multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes. So while the odds of the U.S. falling into a recession later in 2023 are elevated, especially once the leftover stimulus is exhausted, we expect the economic news for the next couple of quarters to be reasonably supportive.