Ever since 3-D printing — the ability to construct solid objects by building them up, a layer at a time, in plastic or metal — hit public consciousness a couple of years ago, comment has veered toward two extremes.
Fans, often in America, insist it will have a dramatic effect, undermining the economics of mass production and repatriating jobs to the West. According to the Harvard Business Review, "China will have to give up on being the mass-manufacturing powerhouse of the world."
Critics denounce it as overblown hype — "a gimmick" according to Terry Gou, the boss of Foxconn, a manufacturing giant in China: he says he will start spelling his name backward if he is proved wrong.
In fact 3-D printing is evolving in a way that defies both these predictions. It is plainly a serious technology with a big economic impact. But it is not necessarily harming old-style factories or the Chinese.
The idea that it is a gimmick, suitable only for hobbyists, looks ever less likely. Cheap 3-D printers for consumers are selling fast, but account for just 5 percent of the market. Many printers are still used for models and prototypes, but in 2012 more than 25 percent of the items emerging from 3-D printers were finished parts, up from 4 percent in 2003, according to Wohlers Associates, a consultancy.
A major player in 3-D technology is Eden Prairie-based Stratasys, which in the past year has merged with an Israeli 3-D printer maker — Objet — and those two promptly bought MakerBot, a maker of smaller 3-D printers for the hobbyist market. Stratasys sales have grown fourfold since 2009 to an estimated $462 million in 2013.
Wohlers predicts that the industry, worth $2.2 billion last year, will grow by 28 percent this year. Align Technology, which makes transparent dental braces, printed 17 million of them last year alone. And America's space agency, NASA, recently tested a rocket engine with a 3-D-printed fuel injector. Printing meant it could be made with just two parts instead of 115.
A recent report on the technology by CM Research, another consultancy, concluded that manufacturers who do not adopt 3-D printing "may find themselves at a cost disadvantage faster than they think."